南寧市呼吸道疾病預(yù)測研究
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X51 S858.316.3

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南寧科技局項目“南寧氣象條件對人體健康的影響及醫(yī)療氣象預(yù)報研究”(南寧科技攻關(guān)20030136C)資助.


Prediction of Respiratory Tract Diseases in Nanning
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    摘要:

    通過對2001~2002年南寧市2個最大醫(yī)院呼吸道疾病39305例門診資料進(jìn)行小波分析,得出各種疾病發(fā)病人數(shù)均存在5~7天的周期。將呼吸道疾病發(fā)病人數(shù)和同期氣象要素、大氣污染物濃度資料進(jìn)行相關(guān)分析,結(jié)果表明,呼吸道疾病發(fā)病人數(shù)與氣溫、氣壓、濕度密切相關(guān),同時與大氣污染物SO2、NO2、PM10濃度也密切相關(guān)。利用最優(yōu)子集方法,按不同季節(jié)建立呼吸道疾病下周逐日發(fā)病人數(shù)預(yù)測方程,2004年1月支氣管炎發(fā)病人數(shù)預(yù)報值與實際值相對誤差為16.43%,2004年4月未來1~2天呼吸道疾病發(fā)病人數(shù)預(yù)報值對天氣變化的敏感性與實際值基本一致。

    Abstract:

    Based on 39305 cases of outpatients from 2001 to 2002 in two big hospitals of Nanning, it is concluded by using wavelet analysis that there is a 5 -7 day period in the number of patients. The relationship among respiratory tract disease, meteorological factors and pollutant concentrations is analyzed by using the data on the outpatients and the corresponding meteorological conditions and air pollutants. The results show that the number of respiratory tract disease patients is closely correlative with air temperature, air pressure and humidity, as well as the concentrations of such air pollutants as SO2, NO2, and PM10. Meanwhile, the optimal subset method was used to establish the regressive equations for forecasting respiratory tract diseases in the next 1 to 2 days and the next week for different seasons. The regressive equations were tested based on the bronchitis cases of outpatients in January 2004 and the respiratory tract disease cases of outpatients in April 2004, and the results show that the regressive equations are applicable.

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董蕙青 字春霞 郭琳芳 鄭鳳琴 林振敏 李雄.南寧市呼吸道疾病預(yù)測研究[J].氣象科技,2005,33(6):559~564

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  • 收稿日期:2005-05-16
  • 定稿日期:2005-08-18
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