滕州市近50年氣候干濕變化
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Climate Change of Drought/Wetness in Tengzhou in Last 50 Years
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    摘要:

    利用滕州市1956~2005年降水量、平均氣溫資料,用Holdridge干燥度指數(shù)來分析近50年氣候干濕變化趨勢和特征。滕州市近50年來在年生物溫度、年可能蒸散量極顯著上升背景下,年降水量不顯著的減小趨勢,造成年水分盈虧量顯著虧損及年干燥度指數(shù)顯著增大,總體呈現(xiàn)暖干化趨勢。年干燥度指數(shù)變化有明顯的階段性,干濕期交替變化,大體經(jīng)歷了3個濕期和2個干期。1976年年干燥度指數(shù)發(fā)生由偏濕向偏干的突變,突變后氣候類型分布發(fā)生顯著變化。通過對近50年年干燥度指數(shù)滑動平均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差分析發(fā)現(xiàn):隨著干燥度指數(shù)平均值的增大,異常濕事件明顯減少,而異常干事件明顯增多,同時,隨著標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的增大,異常干濕事件頻率明顯增大。

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    The calculation is made of the Holdridge aridity index to analyze climate tendency and characteristics of drought/wetness changes for the last 50 years by means of the mean air temperature and precipitation at Tengzhou from 1956 to 2005. The results show that under the influence of the obvious increase trend of annual biotemperature and annual potential evapotranspiration,the indistinctive decrease trend of annual precipitation caused the obvious loss trend of annual water budget and the outstanding increase trend of annual aridity index. The aridity index varies periodically, and drought and wetness stages appear alternately. Generally there are three wetness stages and two drought stages. In 1976, the aridity abruptly turned from wet to dry. Climate types changed markedly after the abrupt climate transformation. Through the movingaverage analysis of the aridity index and the standard deviation, it is found that along with the increase of average aridity index,unusual wetness events obviously decreased,but unusual drought events obviously increased. Along with the increase of the standard deviation, the total frequency of unusual drought/wetness events increased obviously.

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張美玲,張慧.滕州市近50年氣候干濕變化[J].氣象科技,2007,35(4):495~499

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  • 收稿日期:2006-03-21
  • 定稿日期:2006-04-25
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