CINRAD/SA雷達(dá)冰雹探測(cè)算法效果檢驗(yàn)及參數(shù)本地化
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(40575012)、山東省氣象局科技創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目(2004sdqxg01)共同資助


Performance Evaluation of Hail Detection with CIANRAD/SA Radar and Localization of Hail Parameters
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    摘要:

    2004年CINRAD/SA雷達(dá)新的冰雹探測(cè)算法(HDA)代替了原來(lái)的算法,新的冰雹探測(cè)算法(HDA)估測(cè)任意尺寸的冰雹概率(POH)、直徑大于等于19 mm的強(qiáng)冰雹概率(POSH)和最大冰雹直徑預(yù)測(cè)(MEHS)。結(jié)合濟(jì)南雷達(dá)探測(cè)資料對(duì)冰雹探測(cè)算法預(yù)測(cè)效果進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),雖然有較高的探測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率,但同時(shí)錯(cuò)誤率較高,臨界成功率較低,最大冰雹尺寸預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)況的平均差值約為14.6 mm。對(duì)2002~2005年濟(jì)南雷達(dá)站的歷史資料進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,降雹單體和非降雹單體在最大反射率因子上存在較大差異,5、6、7月的降雹單體最大反射率因子平均值分別為59.7、61.8、63.9 dBz,非降雹單體最大反射率因子平均值分別為53.8、54.9、55.6 dBz。依據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)冰雹探測(cè)算法中的反射率因子等門(mén)限值調(diào)整為53 dBz后,冰雹預(yù)測(cè)仍具有較高的探測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率,錯(cuò)誤率和臨界成功率得到了明顯改善;對(duì)最大冰雹尺寸預(yù)測(cè)中的算法因子門(mén)限值調(diào)整后,預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)況有較好的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系。

    Abstract:

    An enhanced hail detection algorithm (HDA) for the CINRAD/SA radar replaced the original hail algorithm in 2004. The new HDA can estimate the probability of hail (POH, any size), severe hail (diameter greater that 19 mm), and expected maximumsize hail for each detected storm cell. The performance of POH detection is evaluated with Jinan's CINRAD/SA data, using 50% as the warning threshold for the POH parameter, and the verification against hail observations of any size is conducted, and the following accuracy measures are obtained: POD (Probability Of Detection) is 100%, FAR (Falas Alarm Ratio) is 72.2%,CSI (Critical Success Index) is 88%. The expected maximum hail size is 14.6 mm bigger than the actual maximum hail size averagely. Using JinanCINRAD/SA data of 2001 to 2005, the distributive characteristics of the maximum reflectivity in the cases of convective clouds are analyzed. The maximum reflectivities are 59.7, 61.8, 63.9 dBz for hailstorms and 53.8, 54.9, 55.6 dBz for nonhail storms in May, June and July, respectively. So the minimum and maximum reflectivities of a component used in the calculation of the probability of hail are modulated from 45 to 53 dBz, and FAR and CSI are improved obviously. Through adjusting three parameters computing the expected maximum hail size, the expected maximum hail size is close to the actual one.

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刁秀廣,黃秀韶,任鐘冬,楊傳鳳,劉志紅,耿力,朱君鑒. CINRAD/SA雷達(dá)冰雹探測(cè)算法效果檢驗(yàn)及參數(shù)本地化[J].氣象科技,2007,35(5):727~731

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  • 收稿日期:2006-08-07
  • 定稿日期:2006-11-28
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