江蘇省酸雨時空分布特征及酸雨潛勢預(yù)報因子
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中國氣象局研究型業(yè)務(wù)項目(YW200603)和江蘇省氣象局科研重點項目(200601)資助


A Study of Acid Rain SpaceTime Distribution and Potential Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province
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    摘要:

    通過對江蘇4個酸雨監(jiān)測點近13年觀測數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析發(fā)現(xiàn):江蘇酸雨發(fā)生的年平均天數(shù)、酸雨出現(xiàn)次數(shù)、年平均酸雨量等都具有自北向南逐漸增加的趨勢,酸雨發(fā)生次數(shù)和酸雨量具有明顯的年際分布特征和月變化規(guī)律,發(fā)生天數(shù)和酸雨量的月變化均呈現(xiàn)拋物線形分布。根據(jù)發(fā)生酸雨時前期污染物濃度和氣象因子平行分析,探討了南京地區(qū)酸雨發(fā)生時污染物濃度和氣象因子的變化規(guī)律,總結(jié)出了產(chǎn)生酸雨的有利條件:前一天污染物濃度為NO2≥0.04 mg/m3,PM10+NO2≥0.085 mg/m3,SO2+NO2≥0.08 mg/m3,850 hPa主導(dǎo)風(fēng)向以西南風(fēng)為主,次之是東南風(fēng),風(fēng)速小于等于12 m/s。900 hPa以下出現(xiàn)逆溫層。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了南京地區(qū)酸雨潛勢預(yù)報方法并進行了預(yù)報結(jié)果驗證。

    Abstract:

    Based on the analysis of 13year acid rain data from four monitoring spots in Jiangsu, it is concluded that the annual mean number of acid rain days, the occurrence frequency of acid rain events, and the annual mean amount of acid rainfall in Jiangsu tend to increase gradually from north to south. The frequency and amount of acid rainfall show obvious annual and seasonal variation characteristics. The number of acid rain days and the monthly variation of acid rainfall exhibit a parabolashape distribution. According to the parallel analysis of pollutant concentration and meteorological factors before acid rains, the variation regularities of pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors during acid rains in Nanjing are studied, and the favorable conditions for acid rains are summed up that the preceding pollutant concentration: NO2≥0.04 mg/m3,PM10+NO2≥0.085 mg/m3,SO2+NO2≥0.08 mg/m3; at 850 hPa, southwest winds prevail and southeast winds take the secondary place; wind velocities are less than or equals 12 m/s; there exists an inversion layer under 900 hPa. Base on these findings, the method of acid rain potential forecast in Nanjing is presented and forecast verification is conducted.

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劉梅,濮梅娟,尹東屏,張備.江蘇省酸雨時空分布特征及酸雨潛勢預(yù)報因子[J].氣象科技,2008,36(4):462~467

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  • 收稿日期:2007-08-20
  • 定稿日期:2008-03-03
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