東莞市高溫天氣特征及高溫預(yù)警
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Characteristics and Early Warning of High Temperature Weather in Dongguan
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    摘要:

    利用差值分析方法對(duì)東莞市氣象觀測站搬遷前后氣溫同步觀測資料進(jìn)行分析,并對(duì)站點(diǎn)搬遷后高溫日進(jìn)行訂正,探討1971年以來東莞市高溫天氣變化趨勢(shì)特征;同時(shí)利用東莞市高密度自動(dòng)站氣溫監(jiān)測資料對(duì)2007年7~8月該市罕見持續(xù)長時(shí)間高溫天氣的時(shí)間、空間分布進(jìn)行細(xì)化分析;利用單站氣象要素剖面曲線演變特征及一些預(yù)報(bào)經(jīng)驗(yàn)探討該站高溫預(yù)報(bào)、預(yù)警一些指標(biāo)。分析表明:舊站月平均最高氣溫比新站高0.83 ℃、月極端最高氣溫比新站高,訂正新站高溫日后,夏季高溫日從1971年以來幾乎以每10年增加1倍的速度遞增;東莞市高溫分布有區(qū)域小尺度特征,有4個(gè)較為明顯的高溫中心區(qū);單站剖面曲線的演變對(duì)本地高溫預(yù)報(bào)、預(yù)警有較大的指示性。

    Abstract:

    The synchronously observed air temperature data from the new and old meteorology observation stations at Dongguan are analyzed with the difference method. The characteristics of high temperature weather since 1971 are discussed by means of the corrected observation data from the new station. In combination with the air temperature data observed from densely distributed automatic weather stations, the temporal and spatial patterns of high temperature weather from July to August in 2007 are further analyzed. The indexes for high temperature forecast and early warning are also discussed according to the temporal characteristics of meteorological data from the single weather station. The results show that the monthly mean maximum air temperature at old station was 0.83 ℃ higher than that at the new station, and the monthly extreme high air temperature at old station was also higher than that at new station. The number of high temperature days in summer was almost doubled every 10 years and there were 4 high temperature centers over Dongguan. The trend of air temperature profile curve from the single station can be used as a good indicator in high temperature forecasting and early warning.

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張勁梅,鄢俊一.東莞市高溫天氣特征及高溫預(yù)警[J].氣象科技,2008,36(6):755~759

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  • 定稿日期:2008-07-03
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