大氣電場(chǎng)資料在雷電預(yù)警中應(yīng)用
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公益性行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY200806014)和江蘇省氣象災(zāi)害重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(南京信息工程大學(xué))項(xiàng)目(KLME050101)資助


Application of Atmospheric Electric Field Data in Lightning Warning
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    摘要:

    通過(guò)分析浙江省嵊縣地區(qū)2007年6~10月12次強(qiáng)雷暴過(guò)程的電場(chǎng)觀測(cè)資料,并結(jié)合該省閃電定位資料,發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)雷暴云移近電場(chǎng)儀測(cè)站時(shí),在測(cè)站的防護(hù)區(qū)內(nèi)(距測(cè)站10 km半徑范圍內(nèi)),閃電發(fā)生前的電場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)快變抖動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,并且快變抖動(dòng)和閃電的發(fā)生具有01化對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,即當(dāng)有電場(chǎng)的快變抖動(dòng)出現(xiàn)并且在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)電場(chǎng)值數(shù)次達(dá)到一定閾值時(shí),電場(chǎng)值會(huì)隨著時(shí)間增加而達(dá)到防護(hù)區(qū)內(nèi)閃電出現(xiàn)的強(qiáng)度,很少有出現(xiàn)電場(chǎng)快變抖動(dòng)而沒(méi)有產(chǎn)生閃電的情況,利用多元回歸技術(shù)提出雷電預(yù)警方法,將12次雷暴過(guò)程數(shù)據(jù)作為預(yù)報(bào)資料,得出預(yù)報(bào)方程及電場(chǎng)最佳預(yù)警參數(shù)。分析結(jié)果表明,當(dāng)閃電集中發(fā)生在距電場(chǎng)儀10~15 km范圍內(nèi),并達(dá)到電場(chǎng)儀預(yù)警條件時(shí),為最佳預(yù)警時(shí)間,預(yù)警準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到73%。

    Abstract:

    Through the analysis of 12 typical thunderstorm processes around Shengxian County of Zhejiang Province recorded by the atmospheric electric field instrument from June to October 2007, in combination with the data recorded by lightning position finders, it is found that when thunderstorm clouds approach the station with an electric field instrument, there will occur the phenomenon of fastchanging dither before the occurrence of lightning within the protection range of the station (10 km around the station), which has the 01 relationship with lightning. That is, when the fastchanging dither in the electric field appears and the strength of the electric field reaches a certain threshold several times in a period of time, the electricfield strength will increase to achieve the intensity necessary for the appearance of lightning within the protection range, and there is little circumstances that the appearance of fastchanging dither is not accompanied by the appearance of lightning. The forecast equation and most appropriate electricfield parameters are given, and the method of thunderstorm warning is presented with the multivariate regression method. The results show that it is the best time to make warning when lightning strokes are concentrated within a range of 10 to 15 km around the atmospheric electric field instrument if the conditions of warning for the electric field instrument are satisfied, with the accuracy being up to about 73%.

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柴瑞,王振會(huì),肖穩(wěn)安,楊仲江,張慧良,張衛(wèi)斌.大氣電場(chǎng)資料在雷電預(yù)警中應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2009,37(6):724~728

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  • 收稿日期:2008-07-10
  • 定稿日期:2009-01-07
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