1961~2005年西雙版納淺層地溫對氣候變化的響應
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Responses of Soil Temperature in Shallow Layers to Climatic Change in Xishuangbanna from 1961 to 2005
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    摘要:

    利用1961~2005年云南景洪0~20 cm各層逐月平均地溫,采用氣候傾向率、累積距平、信噪比等氣候統(tǒng)計方法,研究了近45年西雙版納淺層平均地溫的變化趨勢、氣候突變和異常年份等。結果表明:各年、季淺層平均地溫均呈現(xiàn)極顯著的升高趨勢,升溫率為0.14~0.40 ℃/10a,春季最小,冬季最大,年和春、冬兩季表層升溫率最大。各淺層平均地溫在1980年秋季均發(fā)生了突變,冬季突變出現(xiàn)在1978年,以突變點劃分,前為冷期,后為暖期,0 cm、15 cm和20 cm年平均地溫,突變前只有20 cm年平均地溫增溫趨勢不顯著,突變后則相反,只有20 cm年平均地溫呈顯著的增溫趨勢,這表明20世紀80年代以來,20 cm地溫對氣候變暖的響應更強。年平均地溫除10 cm外均在1971年異常偏低,各淺層年平均地溫2003年均異常偏高。氣溫升高是影響地溫上升的主要原因。

    Abstract:

    The variation trend,abrupt changes and anomalous years of annual and seasonal mean soil temperature at shallow layers from 1961 to 2005 in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province are investigated by using the statistical diagnostic methods such as linear trend analysis,accumulated variance and signalnoise ratio. The results indicate:(1) In terms of linear trend,the seasonal mean soil temperature in the shallow layers displayed a significant increasing trend in Xishuangbanna in past 45 years with an increase rate of 0.14 to 0.40 ℃/10a, maximum in winter,minimum in spring. The interdecadal variations of the annual and seasonal mean soil temperature in the shallow layers had an obvious increasing tendency, especially in winter and spring. (2) The abrupt changes of mean soil temperature in various layers occurred in autumn of 1980,and the abrupt changes in winter appeared in 1978; the period before the abrupt change is colder and the period after is warmer. Before the abrupt change, only annual mean soil temperature at 20 cm kept the same increasing trend, but a significant increasing trend after the abrupt changes, which shows that the annual mean soil temperature at 20 cm response to climate warming more sensitively since the 1980s. (3) Except that the annual mean soil temperature at 10 cm was anomalously lower in 1971,anomalously higher temperature occurred in 2003 at the other shallow levels. The results proved that the significant increase of air temperature is the main cause of the increase of soil temperature.

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蒙桂云,喻彥.1961~2005年西雙版納淺層地溫對氣候變化的響應[J].氣象科技,2010,38(3):316~320

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  • 收稿日期:2009-03-30
  • 定稿日期:2009-11-05
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