黑龍江省玉米田土壤旱澇預(yù)報
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黑龍江省氣象局重點項目(ZD200902)、“黑龍江省干旱和預(yù)報評估技術(shù)研究”(YB200908)資助


Soil Drought/Flood Forecasting for Corn Fields in Heilongjiang Province
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    摘要:

    玉米旱澇預(yù)報模型考慮了土壤〖CD*2〗大氣〖CD*2〗植物之間的水分交換關(guān)系,基于土壤水分平衡原理,以旬為預(yù)報時段,以黑龍江省34個測墑?wù)军c每旬玉米田土壤相對濕度代表所在縣的平均玉米田土壤相對濕度,利用上一旬末土壤相對濕度和下一旬降水預(yù)測值來預(yù)報下一旬末的土壤相對濕度。根據(jù)土壤旱澇指標來確定土壤旱澇等級。用2007年3月上旬至11月上旬實測玉米田土壤濕度對其檢驗。結(jié)果表明:黑龍江省春季和秋季預(yù)報比較準確,絕對誤差在5%以下;夏季預(yù)報誤差比春秋季節(jié)略高,絕對誤差在6%以下,有些縣市絕對誤差甚至達到0。根據(jù)確定的土壤旱澇等級檢驗土壤旱澇預(yù)報準確率表明,準確率較高,效果較好。

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    Based on the principles of soilmoisture balance, the core of the model takes full account of the exchange relations of soil, atmosphere, and plant, with the forecast period being ten days. The cornfield soil relative humidity for every 10 days from 34 moisture measurement stations in Heilongjiang Province were used to represent that of the corresponding county. The soil relative humidity at the end of the last 10 days and the forecasted precipitation of the next ten days were used to forecast the soil relative humidity at the end of the next 10 days. According to soil drought indicators,the level of soil droughts/floods was determined, and a test was made with the observed soil humidity in the cornfields from March to November in 2007. The results show that the forecasts were more accurate in spring and autumn, with absolute errors being less than 5 percent; errors in summer were slightly higher than those in spring and autumn, with absolute errors being under 6 percents, even zero in some places. To use the determined levels of soil droughts/floods to test the forecasting accuracy of soil droughts/floods, the results proved satisfactory.

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季生太,閆平,姜麗霞,張歡,殷世平.黑龍江省玉米田土壤旱澇預(yù)報[J].氣象科技,2010,38(3):363~367

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  • 收稿日期:2009-06-23
  • 定稿日期:2010-02-21
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