北京地區(qū)非職業(yè)性CO中毒模型及氣象指數(shù)
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北京區(qū)域氣象中心基金項(xiàng)目資助


Meteorological Index and Meteorological Model of Non occupational CO Poisoning in Beijing
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    摘要:

    為了減少北京冬季非職業(yè)性CO中毒(以下簡稱CO中毒)事件,搜集整理了北京城近郊區(qū)16個(gè)急救中心2002—2005年的逐日煤氣中毒人數(shù),經(jīng)過研究冬半年(10月至翌年4月)逐日CO中毒人次與北京觀象臺(tái)氣象要素以及北京周邊(河北省8個(gè)氣象站)海平面氣壓場的相關(guān)關(guān)系,采用準(zhǔn)多元回歸指數(shù)概率分級(jí)技術(shù),建立了CO中毒指數(shù)(4分級(jí))預(yù)報(bào)及相應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平評(píng)估模式。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),CO中毒人次有明顯的季節(jié)變化,每年1—3月中毒人數(shù)偏高,10月和4月相對(duì)較低;CO中毒氣象指數(shù)24、48和72 h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效的歷史擬合率達(dá)502%~605%(預(yù)報(bào)等級(jí)完全正確),預(yù)報(bào)與實(shí)況誤差小于等于1級(jí)的歷史擬合率為852%~882%。該研究結(jié)果經(jīng)過2008年1月至2009年4月在電視、報(bào)紙、電臺(tái)和手機(jī)短信等媒體中的應(yīng)用,在科學(xué)預(yù)防一氧化碳中毒事件發(fā)生,為北京市煤氣中毒事件和死亡人數(shù)下降7%發(fā)揮了作用。

    Abstract:

    In order to reduce the number of non occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events during winter in Beijing, the data of the daily number of CO poisoned patients from 16 emergency centers of the Beijing urban area from 2002 to 2005 was collected. The correlation between daily number of CO poisoned patients in the Beijing urban area in the winter half year (October to next April) and meteorological elements from the Beijing observatory, as well as the sea level pressure field data of areas around Beijing (8 weather stations in Hebei Province), are studied. Using the method of quasi multiple regression index probability classification, the CO poisoning index (4 classes) forecast model and the corresponding CO poisoning risk level assessment model are established. The results show that the number of CO poisoned patients varied obviously and seasonally, higher from January to March and relatively low from October to April of the next year. The historical fitting rate of completely correct and less than 1 class forecast of CO poisoning meteorological index for 24, 48 and 72 hours reached 502% to 605% and 852% to 552%, respectively. From January 2008 to April 2009, the research findings had been used in TV, newspaper, broadcast and mobile weather service.

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劉燕,王虎,朱江華,宛公展,張德山.北京地區(qū)非職業(yè)性CO中毒模型及氣象指數(shù)[J].氣象科技,2013,41(2):384~388

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  • 收稿日期:2011-12-15
  • 定稿日期:2012-05-09
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-04-11
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