多家數(shù)值產(chǎn)品沿海大暴雨預(yù)報(bào)性能檢驗(yàn)
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Performance Verification of Coastal Torrential Rainfall Forecast with Several Numerical Products
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    摘要:

    2010年8月4—5日和2010年8月21—22日兩次天氣過(guò)程都是在副熱帶高壓外圍產(chǎn)生的沿海大暴雨天氣,利用多種資料,重點(diǎn)針對(duì)基層氣象臺(tái)(站)常用的幾家數(shù)值模式產(chǎn)品,對(duì)兩次暴雨過(guò)程從環(huán)流形勢(shì)、影響系統(tǒng)、降水量要素等方面進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)分析。結(jié)果表明:各家數(shù)值模式產(chǎn)品對(duì)暴雨定量預(yù)報(bào)有一定的預(yù)報(bào)能力,但降雨量級(jí)普遍偏小,對(duì)強(qiáng)降水中心的預(yù)報(bào)穩(wěn)定性較差;在降水量級(jí)上,EC模式預(yù)報(bào)較準(zhǔn)確,具有較高的參考價(jià)值。對(duì)產(chǎn)生暴雨天氣影響系統(tǒng)位置和強(qiáng)度的預(yù)報(bào),不同的數(shù)值模式有所差異;對(duì)西太平洋副熱帶高壓的預(yù)報(bào),T639模式和EC模式各時(shí)效預(yù)報(bào)脊點(diǎn)位置跟實(shí)況場(chǎng)一致,但強(qiáng)度較實(shí)況偏弱;但對(duì)高空槽和切變線的預(yù)報(bào)跟實(shí)況都有一定的偏差。因此在暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中需要在參考數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合強(qiáng)對(duì)流工具、實(shí)況加密資料、物理量場(chǎng)、相似個(gè)例和經(jīng)驗(yàn)外推等其他輔助手段提高暴雨站點(diǎn)預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率,從而提升災(zāi)害性天氣服務(wù)的效果。

    Abstract:

    Two coastal heavy rain events occurred in 4-5 and 21-22 August 2010 were caused by the subtropical high. For several kinds of numerical products that are used widely, verification is conducted mainly from the aspects of circulation situation, influencing systems, and precipitation elements. The results show that these numerical products have certain prediction capability for heavy rainfall quantitatively, but predicted rainfall levels are generally smaller, and the prediction of the strong precipitation center is poor in stability; the position forecasts of EC and T639 models are more accurate, but the intensity forecasts are smaller than the actual situation. There are certain differences between numerical models and the actual situation in the position and intensity of the weather systems producing the heavy rainfall. As for the West Pacific subtropical high, the 72 h forecast of the T639 model is weaker than the actual storm, and the stability of EC model is higher, but there is certain deviation in upper trough and shear line forecasts. In torrential rain forecasting, it is necessary, on the basis of numerical forecast products, to combine strong convective products with such auxiliary tools as intensive observation data, physical fields, similar examples, experienced empirical extrapolation, etc., to improve the forecast accuracy of heavy rain forecasts.

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崔粉娥,王勇,李慧君.多家數(shù)值產(chǎn)品沿海大暴雨預(yù)報(bào)性能檢驗(yàn)[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):696~702

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  • 收稿日期:2012-04-27
  • 定稿日期:2012-10-09
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-08-27
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