氣象干旱綜合監(jiān)測指數(shù)在湖北的本地化應(yīng)用及其適用性分析
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2014年業(yè)務(wù)建設(shè)項目“氣候監(jiān)測預(yù)測業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)平臺建設(shè)與改進”資助


Modification and Applicability Evaluation of Comprehensive Monitoring Index of Meteorological Drought in Hubei Province
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    摘要:

    在對氣象干旱綜合監(jiān)測指數(shù)(IMCI)特點理論分析基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合湖北省干旱特點,對IMCI在湖北省應(yīng)用進行了參數(shù)修訂。通過與干旱監(jiān)測業(yè)務(wù)中使用的綜合氣象干旱指數(shù)(ICI)在干旱統(tǒng)計特征、典型干旱過程診斷能力方面的對比分析,評估了IMCI指數(shù)在湖北省的適用性。結(jié)果表明:IMCI未改變ICI干旱監(jiān)測的總體結(jié)論,但在干旱演變過程方面較ICI平緩,且對持續(xù)時間較長的大旱過程刻畫較好。修訂后的IMCIHB有效糾正了IMCINCC對旱情發(fā)生、發(fā)展及緩解過程反應(yīng)過于遲鈍、旱情監(jiān)測偏重的不足,同時相對于ICINCC2對降水過于敏感又有所改善。然而,IMCINCC和IMCIHB依然存在冬季對微量降水過于敏感及旱情不連續(xù)發(fā)展的不足。干旱指數(shù)在特定區(qū)域應(yīng)用時進行適當?shù)男抻喓瓦m用性檢驗是必要的,研究結(jié)果可為IMCI在國內(nèi)其他地區(qū)應(yīng)用的修訂提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the theoretical analysis of the characteristics of the comprehensive monitoring index of meteorological drought (IMCI), together with drought characteristics in Hubei Province, the IMCI proposed by the National Climate Center (NCC) is modified for use in Hubei Province, and then tested in the aspects of the statistic characteristics of droughts and the diagnosis capability of typical drought processes through comparing with the commonly used compound meteorological drought index (ICI). Results show that there is no significant difference between IMCI and ICI in the general conclusion of drought monitoring, but IMCI shows a slower rate than ICI in drought development, and IMCI performs better at characterizing long term severe droughts. In addition, the modified IMCI has effectively corrected the insensitivity of the NCC IMCI in detecting of the occurrence, development and relief of droughts as well as its overestimate of drought severity, and the modified IMCI is no more too sensitive to precipitation compared to ICI. However, both indexes still tend to too sensitive to small precipitation in winter season and there are unreasonable phenomena: sudden enhancement of droughts in both. The results suggest that it is advisable to perform a proper evaluation and modification if necessary before applying IMCI to a new specific region.

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秦鵬程,劉敏,萬素琴,劉志雄,湯陽.氣象干旱綜合監(jiān)測指數(shù)在湖北的本地化應(yīng)用及其適用性分析[J].氣象科技,2014,42(2):341~247

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  • 收稿日期:2013-02-18
  • 定稿日期:2013-06-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-04-27
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