T639和EC模式對內(nèi)蒙古主要天氣系統(tǒng)的預(yù)報(bào)性能檢驗(yàn)
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中國氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目(CMAYBY2013 012)資助


Verification and Assessment of Forecasting Performance of General Circulation Systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC Model Products
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    摘要:

    利用2012年T639和EC模式500 hPa高度場預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品及ECMWF客觀再分析資料,采用天氣學(xué)檢驗(yàn)方法,對內(nèi)蒙古主要天氣影響系統(tǒng)之西風(fēng)槽、貝加爾湖冷渦、蒙古冷渦和東北冷渦數(shù)值產(chǎn)品的預(yù)報(bào)性能進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明:T639和EC模式產(chǎn)品對內(nèi)蒙古影響系統(tǒng)具有較好的預(yù)報(bào)性能,36 h內(nèi)的預(yù)報(bào)性能更為顯著。EC模式產(chǎn)品預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率優(yōu)于T639模式產(chǎn)品,但對內(nèi)蒙古東部地區(qū)影響系統(tǒng)的預(yù)報(bào)穩(wěn)定性相對較差。T639模式產(chǎn)品在36 h的預(yù)報(bào)能力比較高,對影響系統(tǒng)的生成時(shí)間、槽線位置、移動(dòng)速度及中心強(qiáng)度4項(xiàng)檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo)預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率均在80%以上。EC模式預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,48 h內(nèi)對影響系統(tǒng)4項(xiàng)檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo)預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率均在80%以上。隨著預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效延長,T639和EC模式產(chǎn)品預(yù)報(bào)能力均有所下降。兩套模式產(chǎn)品與實(shí)況相關(guān)系數(shù)空間分布在各時(shí)效均具有顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系,并且對應(yīng)相關(guān)系數(shù)空間分布,T639和EC模式產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的大值中心與相關(guān)系數(shù)的低值中心基本一致。

    Abstract:

    Based on T639 and EC model data and ECMWF reanalysis data over 500 hPa in 2012, the forecast products are validated by the synoptic verification method in terms of the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the weather systems. The results show that the forecasting of synoptic systems in Inner Mongolia is relatively accurate based on T639 and EC models, especially for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model forecast products is better than that of the T639 model, but the stability of EC model products is poorer in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The accuracy of T639 model products is greater than 80% in the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the systems for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model products is higher than that of T639 model products, with the accuracy being greater than 80% in four test indexes for 48 hour forecasting. The prediction capabilities of both T639 and EC model products decrease with the increasing of lead time. There is a significantly correlation between forecast and observation for both models, corresponding well with the distribution of correlation coefficients, and the high value centers of standard deviation are in agreement with the low value centers of correlation coefficient.

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荀學(xué)義,孟雪峰,王學(xué)強(qiáng),胡英華,金迎春,趙斐,拓彥軍,張旭. T639和EC模式對內(nèi)蒙古主要天氣系統(tǒng)的預(yù)報(bào)性能檢驗(yàn)[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):832~838

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  • 收稿日期:2013-09-06
  • 定稿日期:2013-12-06
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-10-30
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