SCMOC溫度精細(xì)化指導(dǎo)預(yù)報(bào)在陜西區(qū)域的質(zhì)量檢驗(yàn)
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陜西省氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)(2017Y 24)、干旱氣象科學(xué)研究基金(IAM201306)、陜西省氣象服務(wù)中心2013年自立項(xiàng)目、陜西省氣象局?jǐn)?shù)值預(yù)報(bào)應(yīng)用研究創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目資助


Quality Test of Refined Guidance SCMOC Temperature Prediction in Shaanxi Province
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    摘要:

    利用2012年陜西區(qū)域99站共366天北京時(shí)間08:00和20:00起報(bào)的SCMOC溫度精細(xì)化指導(dǎo)預(yù)報(bào)與實(shí)況資料的比較,檢驗(yàn)分析了定時(shí)溫度、日最高氣溫和日最低氣溫的預(yù)報(bào)質(zhì)量。結(jié)果表明:陜西區(qū)域SCMOC溫度精細(xì)化指導(dǎo)預(yù)報(bào)08:00起報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確率高于20:00起報(bào)的,且預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率有明顯的季節(jié)變化,夏、秋季節(jié)較高,冬、春季節(jié)較低,日最高(低)氣溫的預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率與預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效成反比。地形高度影響溫度預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率,二者之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)通過了顯著性檢驗(yàn)。08:00起報(bào)的48 h內(nèi)逐3 h氣溫多出現(xiàn)負(fù)誤差,20:00起報(bào)的多出現(xiàn)正誤差。08:00起報(bào)的日最高氣溫和20:00起報(bào)的日最高(低)氣溫多出現(xiàn)負(fù)誤差,08:00起報(bào)的日最低氣溫多出現(xiàn)正誤差。從對典型天氣過程的溫度預(yù)報(bào)質(zhì)量檢驗(yàn)來看,強(qiáng)冷空氣影響下的降溫天氣過程的溫度預(yù)報(bào)難度較大,預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率較其他天氣類型偏低一些。

    Abstract:

    According the comparison between observation temperature from stations and SCMOC refined guidance temperature forecast starting at 00:00GMT and 12:00GMT for 366 days in 2012 for 99 stations over Shaanxi, the characteristics of prediction errors of three hourly predicted temperature, daily maximum, and minimum temperature are annalyzed. The result shows: the accuracy of the predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT is better than that starting at 12:00GMT, and there is obvious seasonal variation, higher in summer and autumn, lower in winter and spring. The accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperature prediction has negative correlation with lead time, and the topographic height influences the accuracy of temperature prediction remarkably. The three hourly predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT for 48 hours has greater negative errors, but that starting at 12:00GMT has greater positive errors. The predicted daily maximum and minimum temperatures are often smaller than observations, except the predicted minimum temperature starting at 00:00GMT. The accuracy of temperature prediction is lower in obvious temperature drop weather, comparing with other weather, according to the quality test of temperature prediction in different weather conditions.

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王丹,高紅燕,馬磊,王建鵬,楊新. SCMOC溫度精細(xì)化指導(dǎo)預(yù)報(bào)在陜西區(qū)域的質(zhì)量檢驗(yàn)[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):839~846

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  • 收稿日期:2013-07-30
  • 定稿日期:2014-02-12
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-10-30
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