基于Copula函數(shù)的川西南地區(qū)連旱危險度分析
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(40875053)、中國氣象局成都高原氣象研究所基金項目(LPM2009017)資助


Hazard Analysis of Continuous Droughts in Southwestern Sichuan Based on Copula Function
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    摘要:

    利用川西南地區(qū)1960—2010年逐日降水資料,結(jié)合降水距平百分率干旱指標(biāo),基于Copula函數(shù),構(gòu)造川西南地區(qū)季節(jié)間連旱的危險度評估模型,對各站春夏連旱、夏秋連旱、秋冬連旱及冬春連旱的危險度特征進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明:Clayton Copula函數(shù)可用于季度間連旱模型的建立。通過各站的危險度評估模型得出,川西南地區(qū)遭遇春夏連旱的危險度最低,其中樂山市低至452%;而遭遇冬春連旱的危險度最高,攀枝花市高達(dá)2899%。針對各站點而言,攀枝花市遭遇各種連旱的危險度最高,而樂山市遭遇各種連旱的危險度最低。對同一種連旱而言,各站遭遇不同強(qiáng)度連旱的危險度特征也有所差異。總體而言,當(dāng)相鄰季節(jié)均為重旱時,各站的連旱的危險度最小;當(dāng)兩季節(jié)均為偏旱強(qiáng)度時,各站的連旱的危險度最高。

    Abstract:

    Based on the seasonal precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 in the southwestern Sichuan, combining the percentages of precipitation anomaly, the Copula method is applied to construct the hazard evaluation model of continuous droughts between adjacent seasons for each weather station in the southwestern Sichuan. The results indicate that the Copula function can be applied to construct the hazard evaluation model of continuous droughts between adjacent quarters at each station in the southwestern Sichuan. It is concluded:(1) the hazard degree of spring and summer continuous droughts is the lowest in the southwestern Sichuan, as low as 452% in Leshan.(2) the hazard degree of winter and spring continuous droughts is the highest, high up to 2899% in Panzhihua. (3) by contrast, the hazard degree of spring and summer continuous drought for Panzhihua is the highest, while the lowest in Leshan. For the same kind of continuous droughts, the risks for different stations are different. In general, when there are severe droughts in the adjacent seasons, the risk of continuous droughts is the lowest; when there are light droughts in the adjacent seasons, the risk of continuous drought was the highest.

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張靜,王海功,倪長健,范江琳,閆俊.基于Copula函數(shù)的川西南地區(qū)連旱危險度分析[J].氣象科技,2015,43(2):302~308

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  • 收稿日期:2014-04-02
  • 定稿日期:2014-10-08
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-04-28
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