云南降雨型滑坡縣級(jí)預(yù)警雨量閾值分析
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云南省科技計(jì)劃應(yīng)用基礎(chǔ)項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):2011FB128)資助


CountyLevel Rainfall Warning Thresholds for RainfallInduced Landslides in Yunnan
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    摘要:

    根據(jù)云南省華坪縣滑坡災(zāi)害歷史數(shù)據(jù)和同期氣象站實(shí)測(cè)小時(shí)降雨資料,以滇西北的華坪縣為例動(dòng)態(tài)地計(jì)算了每次滑坡災(zāi)害的有效降雨天數(shù)和對(duì)應(yīng)前期的有效降雨量;并應(yīng)用主成分分析法對(duì)44場(chǎng)降雨型滑坡進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明間接前期雨量、發(fā)生雨量和激發(fā)雨量對(duì)誘發(fā)滑坡都有重要影響,得出誘發(fā)滑坡的降水有短時(shí)強(qiáng)降雨和長(zhǎng)時(shí)低強(qiáng)度降雨兩種類(lèi)型。由此建立了含有兩類(lèi)降雨特點(diǎn)的華坪縣I〖CD*2〗D(降雨強(qiáng)度〖CD*2〗歷時(shí))閾值曲線,并在此過(guò)程中提出了確定降雨歷時(shí)D結(jié)束時(shí)刻的方法和有待進(jìn)一步研究的問(wèn)題。通過(guò)對(duì)華坪縣滑坡預(yù)警雨量研究,為其他縣級(jí)滑坡災(zāi)害預(yù)警雨量閾值的確定提供一種方法。

    Abstract:

    By means of the historical landslide hazards data and the corresponding hourly precipitation, taking Huaping Station of Yunnan Province as an example, the effective rainfall days and the corresponding antecedent precipitation are calculated. The method of principal components analysis is applied to study the impact of the rainfall factors on the occurrence of landslides in order to understand the contribution of antecedent precipitation. The results show that the antecedent precipitation, occurrence precipitation, and excitation precipitation are important for the occurrence of landslides. The weighted relation between antecedent precipitation and occurrence precipitation is discussed. The landslideinduced rainfall includes shortterm heavy rainfall and prolonged lowintensity rainfall. The relation of rainfall intensity to duration thresholds, which contains two types of rainfall characteristics, is obtained for the initiation of landslides at Huaping. A method for defining the end point of rainfall duration and issues needing further study are discussed. The findings about warning rainfall thresholds for Huaping Station can be used as a reference for determining warning rainfall thresholds for landslide disasters.

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戴叢蕊,黃瑋,李蒙,張明達(dá),李春虎,朱勇.云南降雨型滑坡縣級(jí)預(yù)警雨量閾值分析[J].氣象科技,2015,43(4):675~680

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-24
  • 定稿日期:2015-04-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-08-28
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