冰雪天氣公路通行條件預(yù)警指標(biāo)
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河北省科技廳項目“災(zāi)害性天氣條件下高速公路通行管理技術(shù)研究”(12275405),河北省科研項目“惡劣天氣行業(yè)氣象服務(wù)信息庫及服務(wù)規(guī)范研究”(12ky21)共同資助


PreWarning Indexes of Highway Traffic Condition in Snow and Ice Weather
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    摘要:

    為了提高雪天高速公路行車的安全性,利用河北省高速交警總隊提供的2008—2012年河北省高速公路交通事故資料,統(tǒng)計分析了雪天交通事故時空分布特征。結(jié)果表明:①月分布變化顯著,1月、2月和11月、12月為雪天交通事故的高發(fā)期,占全年雪天交通事故的87.2%;②空間分布不均勻,京港澳高速以及張家口境內(nèi)的京藏、張石等高速是雪天交通事故的多發(fā)區(qū),占總數(shù)的51.1%。基于氣象、路面和地形等因素,采用專家評判法,通過分析2008—2012年河北省29個冰雪個例,提出了河北省冰雪天氣公路通行條件預(yù)警指標(biāo)和分級標(biāo)準(zhǔn),檢驗京滬、京藏高速預(yù)警級別準(zhǔn)確率分別為73.9%、84.2%。該指標(biāo)體系為河北省交通行業(yè)氣象服務(wù)及防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供了參考。

    Abstract:

    In order to ensure the security of expressway driving in snow weather, by using the expressway traffic accident data of 2000 to 2012 over Hebei Province which from the Hebei Province Expressway Traffic Police Corps, the spatial and temporal distributions of traffic accidents in snow weather are analyzed statistically. The results show that: (1) The changes of the monthly distribution were significant, and the high incidences of traffic accidents in snow weather occurred in January, February, November and December, which account for 87.2% of the traffic accidents in snow weather in all the year. (2) There was uneven spatial distribution. The highfrequency accident spots of expressway in snow weather appeared in Expressway G4, G6, S010, etc., in Zhangjiakou region, in which the traffic accidents account for 51.1% of the total traffic accidents in snow weather. Based on the factors such as meteorological, road surface, terrain, etc., using the expert judgment method, through analyzing 29 traffic accident cases in snow weather from 2008 to 2012, the early warning indicators and the classification standards for expressway traffic in ice and snow weather in Hebei Province are proposed, and the warning accuracy rate of grade index reaches 73.9%,84.2% in G2 and G6, respectively.The indexes provide references for meteorological services and disaster prevention and mitigation.

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張金滿,譚桂容,李飛,張娣.冰雪天氣公路通行條件預(yù)警指標(biāo)[J].氣象科技,2016,44(2):331~335

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-08
  • 定稿日期:2015-08-05
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-04-20
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