山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性區(qū)劃研究
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Frangibility Zoning of Agricultural Drought in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    選取山東省17個地級市為研究對象,根據(jù)影響山東農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)的自然環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、社會環(huán)境3方面因素確定了指標(biāo)體系,構(gòu)建了山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性區(qū)劃層次分析模型,建立了判斷矩陣,對山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性情況作了評估研究,并繪制出山東省17地市農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性區(qū)劃圖。結(jié)果表明:在2000—2013年的14年間,山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性評價為不脆弱的城市有5個,輕微脆弱的城市有4個,脆弱的城市有4個,強(qiáng)脆弱的城市有3個,極端脆弱的城市有1個。山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性空間分布格局,全省大致是東南與西北方向低,中部與西南方向高,脆弱性區(qū)劃的結(jié)果反映出山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險程度的地域性差異,脆弱性較高的地市應(yīng)作為農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害防御的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域。

    Abstract:

    Selecting the 17 cities in Shandong Province as research objects, the index system is determined by three factors of affecting agricultural droughts in Shandong Province: natural environment, economic environment, and social environment. The model of agricultural drought frangibility zoning is constructed, and the judgment matrix for Shandong Province is established. Agricultural drought frangibility assessment studies in Shandong Province are conducted, and the frangibility zoning chart of agriculture drought for 17 cities/prefectures in Shandong Province. The results show that from 2000 to 2013, there were 5 nonfrangible cities, 4 slight frangible ones, 4 frangible ones, 3 seriously frangible ones, 1 extremely serious frangible one in fragile rating in Shandong Province. Overall, the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural drought frangibility in Shandong Province is roughly lower in southeast and northwest, higher in central and southwest. The frangibility zoning results reflect the regional differences of agricultural drought risk degree in Shandong Province, and the higher frangibility cities should be as the key area of agricultural drought disaster prevention.

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馬麗,張熙,楚鵬,李芳.山東省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱脆弱性區(qū)劃研究[J].氣象科技,2017,45(3):535~541

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  • 收稿日期:2016-04-29
  • 定稿日期:2016-11-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-07-03
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