離散點(diǎn)氣象要素平流外推模型
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雙動(dòng)力卡爾曼濾波模型研究(廣東省氣象局科研項(xiàng)目編號(hào):2016C11)資助


Advection Extrapolation Model of Meteorological Elements at Discrete Points
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    摘要:

    大氣平流方程一般用于格點(diǎn)場(chǎng)數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)的處理,鮮有應(yīng)用到離散點(diǎn)要素外推。離散點(diǎn)平流外推模型不僅使時(shí)間方向站點(diǎn)資料補(bǔ)缺更具物理意義,而且為站點(diǎn)要素的預(yù)報(bào)奠定基礎(chǔ)。模型首先根據(jù)站點(diǎn)離散特征,對(duì)平流方程進(jìn)行改造,得到離散點(diǎn)風(fēng)速、梯度本征向量,并通過頻數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)擬合出平流項(xiàng)似然概率的高斯表達(dá)式,以此計(jì)算出新平流方程數(shù)值解。通過對(duì)單點(diǎn)和多點(diǎn)的實(shí)況試驗(yàn),得出了模型的具體應(yīng)用特點(diǎn),并給出了一個(gè)實(shí)際的數(shù)據(jù)補(bǔ)缺場(chǎng)景,作用顯著。該模型具有小巧、高效,易用等特點(diǎn),有良好的普適性,作為一個(gè)通用的數(shù)學(xué)模型,為離散點(diǎn)的要素預(yù)報(bào)提供了一種新的思路。

    Abstract:

    Atmospheric advection equations are generally used for numerical forecast on the grid field. It is rarely applied to the extrapolation of discrete elements. The extrapolation of model discrete elements not only makes the data filling in time more meaningful, but also lays the foundation for forecasting elements of a site. The model, based on discrete site characteristics, reforms the advection equation to get the wind speed of sites and gradient eigenvectors. The Gauss expression of the likelihood probability of the advection terms is fitted by the frequency statistics, and the numerical solution of the newstyle advection equation is calculated. Through the singlepoint and multipoint actual tests, the specific application characteristics of the model are obtained, and a real data filling case is given. The results indicate that it worked well. The model is compact, efficient and easy to use, has good universality. As a general mathematical model, it provides a new idea for the element prediction at discrete points.

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湯沛,何險(xiǎn)峰,胡駿楠,黃琰.離散點(diǎn)氣象要素平流外推模型[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1043~1048

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  • 收稿日期:2016-11-29
  • 定稿日期:2017-08-16
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-12-28
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