基于特定因子的河南省干熱風(fēng)客觀預(yù)報(bào)方法
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡(jiǎn)介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號(hào):

基金項(xiàng)目:

中國(guó)氣象局農(nóng)業(yè)氣象保障與應(yīng)用技術(shù)重點(diǎn)開(kāi)放實(shí)驗(yàn)室基金項(xiàng)目(AMF201409)資助


Forecasting Method of DryHot Wind in Henan Province Based on Specific Factors
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)
  • |
  • 參考文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 相似文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 引證文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評(píng)論
    摘要:

    利用2000—2014年5月1日到6月10日河南省121個(gè)氣象觀測(cè)站點(diǎn)的逐日觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)、歐洲中心模式預(yù)報(bào)資料,對(duì)河南省干熱風(fēng)天氣進(jìn)行分析,總結(jié)了干熱風(fēng)天氣形勢(shì)分類模型,同時(shí)利用多元回歸法建立了河南省干熱風(fēng)天氣的客觀預(yù)報(bào)方法。分析結(jié)果得出:河南省干熱風(fēng)天氣發(fā)生主要形勢(shì)為西北氣流型、高壓脊型和緯向環(huán)流型3類;通過(guò)多元回歸分析篩選出日最高溫度預(yù)報(bào)因子為前一日最高氣溫、當(dāng)日最低氣溫、08:00氣溫、EC850 hPa 24 h溫度預(yù)報(bào),相對(duì)濕度預(yù)報(bào)因子為EC850 hPa 24 h相對(duì)濕度預(yù)報(bào)、前一日14:00相對(duì)濕度、當(dāng)日08:00露點(diǎn)溫度,風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)因子為EC細(xì)網(wǎng)格過(guò)去3 h 10 m陣風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào),建立溫度、濕度和風(fēng)速3要素的預(yù)報(bào)方程;利用預(yù)報(bào)方程對(duì)2014年預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段的天氣進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果表明,對(duì)于輕干熱風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)的TS評(píng)分為62%,重干熱風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)的TS評(píng)分為64%。

    Abstract:

    The daily observational data and forecast data of the European center model from 2000 to 2014 of 1st to 31th May of 121 meteorological stations are used to analyze the dryhot wind events in Henan Province,and the classification models of dryhot wind weather are summarized. The objective forecasting method of dryhot wind of Henan Province by using multiple regression method is established. The results show that the main circulation patterns for dryhot wind in Henan province can be divided into three types: northwest airflow type, high pressure ridge type, and zonal circulation type. Through multiple regression analysis, the daily maximum temperature forecast factors are screened: the highest temperature of previous day, the lowest temperature of the day, 08:00 temperature, and EC850 hPa 24hour temperature forecast. The relative humidity forecast factors are: EC850 hPa 24hours relative humidity forecast, 14:00 relative humidity of the previous day, and 08:00 dew point temperature of the day. The wind speed forecast factor is: EC finegrid 10 meters wind forecast in the past 3 hours. The forecast equations of temperature, humidity and wind speed are established. The dryhot wind weather forecast equation is used for 2014 for verification. The results show that the weak dryhot wind forecast TS score is 62%, and strong dryhot wind forecast TS score is 64%.

    參考文獻(xiàn)
    相似文獻(xiàn)
    引證文獻(xiàn)
引用本文

孟祥翼.基于特定因子的河南省干熱風(fēng)客觀預(yù)報(bào)方法[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1049~1057

復(fù)制
分享
文章指標(biāo)
  • 點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
  • 下載次數(shù):
  • HTML閱讀次數(shù):
  • 引用次數(shù):
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-16
  • 定稿日期:2017-09-06
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-12-28
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問(wèn)者
技術(shù)支持:北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司
浦城县| 邵武市| 大名县| 金山区| 广州市| 宝兴县| 卓尼县| 武清区| 黑水县| 忻城县| 彩票| 新野县| 石河子市| 泰安市| 青神县| 深州市| 静宁县| 阿鲁科尔沁旗| 莫力| 乐安县| 斗六市| 庆安县| 绥德县| 云龙县| 天门市| 察雅县| 安乡县| 石家庄市| 新密市| 万山特区| 白河县| 库尔勒市| 区。| 子长县| 金乡县| 新乡市| 会昌县| 宁强县| 厦门市| 水富县| 通榆县|