川西高原中部一次極端暴雪成因分析
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Analysis of an Extreme Snowstorm Weather Process in Central Western Sichuan Plateau
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    摘要:

    利用05°×05°的ECWMF再分析資料,常規(guī)氣象資料以及西南區(qū)域數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)模式模擬等資料,應(yīng)用天氣分析和診斷方法,對(duì)2016年2月21日川西高原中東部的極端暴雪天氣過(guò)程進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析。結(jié)果表明:500 hPa貝加爾湖橫槽旋轉(zhuǎn)南下使得冷空氣并入川西高原中部的低槽中,其與西南暖濕氣流交匯產(chǎn)生的鋒生以及西南急流存在是此次暴雪天氣產(chǎn)生的重要原因;隨著副高的北進(jìn),此次強(qiáng)降雪開(kāi)始之前有來(lái)自于孟加拉灣和南海的兩支水汽輸送,西南低空急流穩(wěn)定維持為此次暴雪提供了充足的水汽。MPV2在此次暴雪過(guò)程中起到了重要作用;強(qiáng)降雪主要發(fā)生在SVD(Slantwise Vorticity Development)強(qiáng)烈發(fā)展的時(shí)段內(nèi),暴雪落區(qū)與SVD發(fā)展最強(qiáng)烈的區(qū)域重合;西南區(qū)域數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)模式提前6 h對(duì)此次暴雪的形勢(shì)場(chǎng)和物理量場(chǎng)都做出了較為準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)報(bào),其中垂直速度和水汽條件預(yù)報(bào)與實(shí)況最吻合,但降水預(yù)報(bào)的量級(jí)較實(shí)況偏弱一個(gè)量級(jí),強(qiáng)降水落區(qū)比強(qiáng)度預(yù)報(bào)更準(zhǔn)確。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data and ECWMF 6hour reanalysis data and the Southwest Regional Numerical Prediction Model, a very severe snowstorm occurred in the middle east of the Western Sichuan Plateau in 21 February 2016 is analyzed and diagnosed. The results show that the snowstorm was mainly related to the southwest jet and the frontogenesis formed in the combination with the cold air and southwest warm and humid airflow. The cold air to the south of the horizontal trough of Baikal was incorporated into the low trough in the central Western Sichuan Plateau. The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea are the sources of the vapor of the snowstorm as the subtropical high moves northward. The heavy snowfall occurred when Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) strongly developed and the snowstorm area was the same as the strongest zone for SVD development. The Southwest Regional Numerical Forecast Model made the accurate forecast 6 hours in advance of the snowstorm’s potential field and physical field. The precipitation forecast was one order of magnitude weaker than the actual precipitation, and the falling zone forecast of the snowstorm was more accurate than its strength forecast.

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孫俊,鄧國(guó)衛(wèi),夏炳江.川西高原中部一次極端暴雪成因分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(3):584~593

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-06
  • 定稿日期:2017-11-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-06-28
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