上海沿岸海域風(fēng)場質(zhì)量控制與預(yù)報檢驗(yàn)
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預(yù)報員專項(CMAYBY2018027)、上海市氣象局啟明星(QM201805)、氣象預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)發(fā)展專項“發(fā)展預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)檢驗(yàn)評估關(guān)鍵技術(shù)(YBGJXM(2018)06)”資助


Quality Control and Forecast Verification of Wind Field in Coastal Waters of Shanghai
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    摘要:

    利用2016年上海沿岸海域19個站點(diǎn)的風(fēng)場資料,進(jìn)行了風(fēng)場質(zhì)量控制,包括完整性檢查、內(nèi)部一致性檢查、持續(xù)性檢查和高度訂正。同時挑選10個站點(diǎn)作為實(shí)況對2016年風(fēng)場模式預(yù)報進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),包括風(fēng)速預(yù)報誤差、風(fēng)速預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率和風(fēng)向預(yù)報檢驗(yàn),對比了風(fēng)場觀測資料質(zhì)量控制前后的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,最后對兩次大風(fēng)過程進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明:預(yù)報檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果均隨著預(yù)報時效的增加而變差;整體誤差秋季和冬季較小,6月和7月誤差較大;分級檢驗(yàn)0~5級風(fēng)速準(zhǔn)確率在0.9~1之間,預(yù)報值比實(shí)況偏大,6級以上風(fēng)速預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率逐漸降低,且預(yù)報值比實(shí)況偏小;風(fēng)向檢驗(yàn)呈現(xiàn)明顯的季節(jié)性,冬季12月、1月誤差小,準(zhǔn)確率最高,夏季6月誤差最大,準(zhǔn)確率最低;質(zhì)量控制后檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果都得到正面提升;兩次大風(fēng)過程預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率均在70%以上。

    Abstract:

    Based on the wind field data of 19 stations in Shanghai coastal waters in 2016, the wind field quality control methods are studied, including the integrity check, internal consistency check, continuity check, and height correction. Meanwhile, 10 stations are selected as observation stations of the wind field forecast verification in 2016, including wind speed error, wind speed accuracy and wind direction verification, and compared the results before and after the quality control of the wind field observation data. Finally, two strong wind processes are verified. The main results are as follow: the forecast verification results become worse with the increase of forecast time; the overall error of wind speed forecast in autumn and winter is small, and that in June and July is larger; the accuracy rate of the 0-5 level wind speed verification is between 0.9 and 1, and the forecast value is larger than observation; the accuracy rate of wind speed forecast above level 6 is gradually reduced, and the forecast value is smaller than that of observation. The wind direction verification shows obvious seasonality; in December and January, the error is small and the accuracy rate is the highest; in June, the error is the largest and the accuracy rate is the lowest. After quality control, the verification results are improved positively; the accuracy rates of the two strong wind processes are all above 70%.

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蔡曉杰,戴建華,朱智慧,郭春迓.上海沿岸海域風(fēng)場質(zhì)量控制與預(yù)報檢驗(yàn)[J].氣象科技,2019,47(2):214~221

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  • 收稿日期:2018-03-20
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-04-24
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