陣風因子與大氣邊界層要素的關系及預報試驗
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浙江省重大科技專項重點社會發(fā)展項目(2011C13044)、浙江省自然科學基金(LY18D050001)、浙江省氣象局科技計劃重點項目(2017ZD09)、浙江省氣象局科技計劃一般項目(2018YB01)資助


Relationship between Gust Factors and ABL Parameters and Its Prediction Test
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    摘要:

    利用2008—2016年舟山4個海島氣象站大風資料和歐洲中心的ERAinterim再分析資料,分析了陣風因子隨平均風速、風向、小時、月份等分布的氣候特征,統(tǒng)計陣風因子與邊界層的大氣穩(wěn)定度、250~1000 m風速與10 m風速的比值、6 h變溫等要素的相關后,選取最佳預報因子,利用BP人工神經網絡方法,根據不同因子組合對陣風進行循環(huán)試報。結果表明:①平均風速較小時陣風因子波動范圍大;靠近大陸站點的陣風因子及來自陸地方向氣流的陣風因子偏大。②白天11:00—16:00受太陽輻射影響大氣湍流相對較強,陣風因子偏大。7—9月沿海受臺風影響頻繁,其陣風因子要大些,而11—12月陣風因子偏大則與來流方向的地表粗糙度較大有關。③陣風因子和邊界層不同高度的風速與10 m風速比值,及氣溫具有明顯正相關,與邊界層大氣穩(wěn)定度參數具有負相關,相關結果印證了陣風主要物理成因與動量的垂直湍流輸送有關。④陣風循環(huán)試報表明最佳組模型試報的絕對誤差及方差均比對比組模型減少約11%~25%,具有較好的預報效果。

    Abstract:

    Based on the wind data at four weather stations in Zhoushan and ERAinterim data during 2008-2016, the climatic characteristics of gust factors with the distribution of mean wind speed, wind direction, hour and month are analyzed respectively. The correlation analysis is carried out between gust factors and atmospheric stability, the ratio of the wind speed at the levels of 250 to 1000 m to the wind speed of 10 m, and the 6h temperature variation at different levels in the atmospheric boundary layer. Then the best predictors are selected and the cyclic tests of gust forecast are conducted based on the BP artificial neural network method. The results show that (1) When the mean wind speed is small, the gust factors fluctuate greatly. The gust factors of air flows near the mainland or from the land direction are larger. (2) The gust factors are relatively larger in 11:00-16:00, when the turbulence affected by solar radiation is relatively strong. The gust factors from July to September and November to December are also relatively larger owing to typhoon influences or the larger surface roughness respectively. (3) The relations of the gust factors with the ratio of the wind speed of 250-1000 m to the wind speed of 10 m and temperature present positive correlation, and there presents negative correlation with stability parameters at the atmospheric boundary layer. It proves that the main physical cause of the gust is relevant to the vertical turbulent transport of momentums. (4) The cyclic tests reveal the important role of stability and turbulence at the atmospheric boundary layer in gust forecast. The gust absolute errors and their variances of the optimum groups are reduced by 10% to 25%, compared with those of comparison groups at four stations.

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胡波.陣風因子與大氣邊界層要素的關系及預報試驗[J].氣象科技,2019,47(2):282~288

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  • 收稿日期:2018-04-10
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-04-24
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