一次冷鋒過程的云微物理特征分析以及飛機(jī)積冰預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)
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廣東省氣象局科研項(xiàng)目(GRMC2018M20)資助


Cloud Microphysical Characteristic Analysis of a Cold Front Process and Aircraft Icing Forecast
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    摘要:

    利用NCEP GDAS/FNL資料分析了2013年2月19日黃淮至江南區(qū)域的一次冷鋒過程的天氣形勢(shì),結(jié)合MODIS衛(wèi)星資料診斷云微物理特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)冷鋒后的江淮大部至黃淮南部包括河南南部環(huán)流場(chǎng)配置和溫度濕度條件好,云層較厚實(shí)且云內(nèi)溫度較低,云中含有足夠的液態(tài)水,有利于生成積冰。接著采用IC指數(shù)法和Willam算法預(yù)報(bào)積冰概率和強(qiáng)度,用相近時(shí)次收到的航空器報(bào)告進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)Willam算法使用的MODIS衛(wèi)星資料分辨率遠(yuǎn)高于IC指數(shù)法的常規(guī)氣象資料數(shù)據(jù),預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率也高于IC指數(shù)法。實(shí)際工作中同時(shí)使用兩種方法,能給飛機(jī)積冰的預(yù)警服務(wù)提供可靠的判斷依據(jù)。

    Abstract:

    Based on the NCEP GDAS/FNL data and MODIS satellite data, the synoptic situation and cloud microphysical characteristics of a cold front process from the Huanghuai region to Jiangnan region on 19 February 2013 are diagnosed. The circulation field and thick clouds, low temperature and enough liquid water were conducive to aircraft icing in most areas from Jianghuai to the southern Huanghuai region, including the southern Henan Province. The IC index method and Willam algorithm are used to forecast the probability and intensity of aircraft icing. Through the verification based on the nearest time aircraft reports, it is found that the resolution of MODIS satellite data by the Willam algorithm is much higher than that of NCEP GDAS/FNL data by the IC index method, and the prediction accuracy is higher also than that by the IC index method. Using two methods simultaneously in practical work is helpful to reliable early warning service for aircraft icing.

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楊潔,王兵,劉峰.一次冷鋒過程的云微物理特征分析以及飛機(jī)積冰預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)[J].氣象科技,2020,48(1):81~87

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  • 收稿日期:2019-03-04
  • 定稿日期:2019-06-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-02-26
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