基于降雨分級(jí)的泥石流降雨I-D預(yù)報(bào)模型
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃(2017YFC1502504)和國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(41977257) 資助


Study of I-D Relationship for Debris Flows Based on Rainfall Classification
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    摘要:

    降雨閾值是泥石流預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的重要研究?jī)?nèi)容。通過(guò)野外考察、文獻(xiàn)查詢(xún)等手段,收集了汶川地震災(zāi)區(qū)典型區(qū)域(都(江堰)汶(川)公路沿線(xiàn))震后34次泥石流事件和對(duì)應(yīng)的降雨過(guò)程,通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)誘發(fā)泥石流的降雨歷時(shí)及平均降雨強(qiáng)度,建立了該地區(qū)的降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗(雨強(qiáng)〖CD*2〗歷時(shí))關(guān)系;針對(duì)〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關(guān)系在實(shí)際預(yù)報(bào)中的不足,結(jié)合中國(guó)氣象部門(mén)的雨量劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和誘發(fā)泥石流的降雨歷時(shí)將降雨分為小量級(jí)降雨(SI)、中量級(jí)降雨(MI)和大量級(jí)降雨(LI)3個(gè)等級(jí),得出復(fù)合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:①都汶地震災(zāi)區(qū)誘發(fā)泥石流的降雨歷時(shí)為2~53 h,平均降雨強(qiáng)度為0.1~13.8 mm/h,〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關(guān)系可表示為〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=5.94 〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.70;②復(fù)合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗預(yù)報(bào)模型可進(jìn)行分級(jí)預(yù)警,其中約80%泥石流事件超過(guò)了橙色等級(jí)預(yù)警線(xiàn),〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關(guān)系式為〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=10.0〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.56(1 h≤〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗 <12 h),I=4.8〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.26(〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗≥12 h);③改進(jìn)后的復(fù)合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗閾值線(xiàn)斜率更小,預(yù)報(bào)精度更高,更適合中國(guó)西部山區(qū)的泥石流預(yù)報(bào)工作,且在2014—2016年都汶公路沿線(xiàn)的泥石流預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)中取得了較好效果。本研究擬為汶川地震災(zāi)區(qū)泥石流的預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)提供技術(shù)支撐。

    Abstract:

    Identification of rainfall thresholds is crucial for debris flow forecasting and hazards mitigation. The data of 34 earthquake debris flow events and their responding rainfall processes in a typical debris flow prone region (the zone along the DujiangyanWenchuan National Highway) were collected through field investigations, interviews, and literature researches, etc. The 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗〖WTBX〗D 〖WTBZ〗relationship is established by analysis of the rainfall duration and mean rainfall intensity. A new debris flow warning classification is proposed based on the rainfall division method of the meteorological department of China and the rainfall duration of the debris flows. The rainfall events are divided into three levels: smallscale rainfall (SI), mediumlevel rainfall (MI), and largelevel rainfall (LI), and the 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 thresholds are improved. The results indicate: (1) The rainfall duration ranged from 2 to 53 hours; the mean rainfall intensity was in the range of 0.1 to 13.8 mm/h; and the 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 relationship can be expressed as 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=5.94〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗0.70. (2) The compounding〖WTBX〗 ID〖WTBZ〗 prediction model can be used for hierarchical warning, and about 80% debris flow events exceed the orange warning line, which can be expressed as 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=10.0〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.56 (1 h ≤〖WTBX〗 D〖WTBZ〗 < 12 h) and 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=4.8〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.26 (〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗≥12 h). (3) The improved compounding 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 relationship has a smaller slope and higher accuracy, and more suitable for the debris flow forecasting in the mountainous areas of the western China. The results are tested by the debris flows in the period of 2014 to 2016, which shows an acceptable accuracy. This study is intended to improve debris flow forecasting and hazards mitigation for earthquakeprone regions.

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范江琳,郭曉軍,青泉,馬力.基于降雨分級(jí)的泥石流降雨I-D預(yù)報(bào)模型[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):242~247

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-06
  • 定稿日期:2019-09-24
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2020-04-29
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