非常規(guī)氣象要素在紫外線預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用
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Application of Unconventional Meteorological Elements in Ultraviolet Index Prediction
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    摘要:

    利用吉林省業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)行的WRF模式,計(jì)算了與紫外線指數(shù)相關(guān)的氣溫、濕度、云量、風(fēng)速等常規(guī)氣象要素和地表向下的短波輻射通量、地面熱通量、反照率等非常規(guī)氣象要素,利用長春市紫外線觀測資料,分析了紫外線輻射與常規(guī)和非常規(guī)氣象要素的相關(guān)性。基于長春市紫外線觀測實(shí)況,以常規(guī)氣象要素、非常規(guī)氣象要素、混合氣象要素為因子,利用相同的統(tǒng)計(jì)建模方法,分別建立紫外線預(yù)報(bào)模型。結(jié)果表明:大氣短波輻射等非常規(guī)氣象要素與紫外線指數(shù)的相關(guān)性,明顯高于氣溫、云量、比濕、風(fēng)速等常規(guī)氣象要素;應(yīng)用非常規(guī)氣象要素和混合氣象要素的紫外線預(yù)報(bào)方程,顯著優(yōu)于常規(guī)氣象要素;基于混合氣象要素的紫外線預(yù)報(bào)方程,與基于非常規(guī)氣象要素的預(yù)報(bào)方程比較,預(yù)報(bào)性能差異不大。此外,應(yīng)用常規(guī)氣象要素建立的分季節(jié)紫外線預(yù)報(bào)方程,其預(yù)報(bào)效果明顯優(yōu)于全年預(yù)報(bào)方程。應(yīng)用非常規(guī)氣象要素建立的分季節(jié)紫外線預(yù)報(bào)方程,與全年預(yù)報(bào)方程相比,預(yù)報(bào)效果差異不大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the WRF model of Jilin Province, the conventional meteorological elements such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed and the unconventional meteorological elements such as downward surface shortwave radiation flux, surface heat flux and albedo are calculated. The correlation between ultraviolet radiation (UV) with conventional and unconventional meteorological factors is analyzed by using the ultraviolet observation data in Changchun. Based on the observation of UV in Changchun, the UV index prediction models are established by using the same statistical modeling method, taking the conventional and unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements as factors. The results show that the correlation between atmospheric short wave radiation and UV index is significantly higher than those of conventional meteorological factors such as temperature, cloud cover, specific humidity and wind speed. The UV index prediction equations of unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements are superior to that of conventional meteorological elements. The UV index prediction equation based on mixed meteorological elements has little difference from that based on unconventional meteorological elements. In addition, the application of conventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect. The application of unconventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect.

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謝靜芳,應(yīng)爽,劉海峰,陳雷.非常規(guī)氣象要素在紫外線預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):248~253

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  • 收稿日期:2019-03-28
  • 定稿日期:2019-11-20
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-04-29
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