基于核安全導(dǎo)則推薦方法的京津冀龍卷風(fēng)災(zāi)害評(píng)估
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河北省科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(17275405D)、河北省氣象局科研開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目(18KY03)資助


Assessment of Tornado Disasters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Recommended Method by Nuclear Safety Guidelines
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    摘要:

    本文根據(jù)美國(guó)《建筑和其它結(jié)構(gòu)最小設(shè)計(jì)荷載》中t秒平均最大風(fēng)速與1 h平均最大風(fēng)速的比值公式,推導(dǎo)出EF級(jí)別和F級(jí)別風(fēng)速測(cè)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)間的轉(zhuǎn)換方法,將京津冀1956—2016年122個(gè)龍卷風(fēng)個(gè)例由EF等級(jí)轉(zhuǎn)化為F等級(jí),再按照《核電廠廠址選擇的極端氣象事件》HAD101/10中推薦的龍卷風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法,對(duì)京津冀龍卷風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度進(jìn)行了定量評(píng)價(jià),結(jié)果表明:京津冀122個(gè)龍卷風(fēng)個(gè)例的風(fēng)程1/4 mile平均最大風(fēng)速均比3 s平均最大風(fēng)速低,平均偏低2.1 m〖DK〗·s-1,風(fēng)速越大,兩者差距越小;122個(gè)龍卷風(fēng)個(gè)例分布在F0到F3共4個(gè)等級(jí)中, F0等級(jí) 31個(gè),F(xiàn)1等級(jí)78個(gè),F(xiàn)2等級(jí)12個(gè),F(xiàn)3等級(jí)1個(gè);京津冀龍卷風(fēng)發(fā)生次數(shù)最多依次為天津、唐山和張家口市,分別為21、21和14次,強(qiáng)龍卷發(fā)生最多的是廊坊市(3個(gè)),衡水、承德、保定、北京4個(gè)市沒(méi)有發(fā)生過(guò)強(qiáng)龍卷;京津冀發(fā)生超越EF1、EF2、EF3、EF4等級(jí)龍卷風(fēng)重現(xiàn)期分別為5.8、10.1、20.2、49.5 a,發(fā)生超越F1、F2、F3、F4等級(jí)龍卷風(fēng)重現(xiàn)期分別為4.9、13.8、38.5、130.7 a;京津冀一年中單位面上(1 km2)10-7概率水平對(duì)應(yīng)的龍卷風(fēng)設(shè)計(jì)基準(zhǔn)風(fēng)速為73.4 m〖DK〗·s-1。

    Abstract:

    Based on the formula of the ratio of the average maximum wind speed in 〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗 seconds to the average maximum wind speed in one hour in the Minimum Design Load for Buildings and Other Structures of the United States, this paper deduces the conversion method between the wind speed measurement standards of EF level and F level, and converts 22 tornado cases in the BeijingTianjinHebei region from 1956 to 2016 from EF level to F level, and then according to the related guidelines for nuclear power plants and the tornado risk assessment method recommended in the Extreme Meteorological Events for Site Selection (HAD101/10), the risk degree of tornado in BeijingTianjinHebei region is quantitatively evaluated. The main conclusions are as follows: for 1/4 mile wind run, the average maximum wind speed of 122 tornado cases in BeijingTianjinHebei is lower than 3second average maximum wind speed, 2.1 m s1 lower than the average, and the higher the wind speed is, the smaller the gap is; 122 tornado cases are distributed in four grades from F0 to F3, including 31 in F0, 78 in F1, 12 in F2 and 1 in F3; in the BeijingTianjinHebei region, tornadoes occur most frequently are in Tianjin, Tangshan and Zhangjiakou, 21, 21 and 14 times, respectively, and the most severe tornadoes occur in Langfang (3); there were no strong tornadoes in Hengshui, Chengde, Baoding and Beijing; the recurrence periods of tornadoes exceeding EF1, EF2, EF3 and EF4 levels in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are 5.8, 10.1, 20.2 and 49.5 years respectively, and those exceeding F1, F2, F3 and F4 levels are 4.9, 13.8, 38.5 and 130.7 years, respectively; the recurrence periods of tornadoes exceeding F1, F2, F3 and F4 levels are 4.9, 13.8, 38.5 and 130.7 years; in the BeijingTianjinHebei region, the tornado design reference wind speed on the unit surface (1 km2) corresponding to the 107 probability level is 73.4 m s-1。

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杜康云,顧光芹,楊銘,許啟慧,劉金平,白璐瑤,石先躍.基于核安全導(dǎo)則推薦方法的京津冀龍卷風(fēng)災(zāi)害評(píng)估[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):299~306

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-22
  • 定稿日期:2019-08-20
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-04-29
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