上海梅汛期候降水異常的低頻信號(hào)及延伸期預(yù)報(bào)
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號(hào):

基金項(xiàng)目:

國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃(2017YFC1502301)、國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41775047、41790471)資助


Low Frequency Signals of Pentad Rainfall Anomaly during Meiyu Season and Its Extended-Range Forecast in Shanghai
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統(tǒng)計(jì)
  • |
  • 參考文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 相似文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 引證文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評(píng)論
    摘要:

    提高汛期降水過程的延伸期預(yù)報(bào)能力是目前天氣預(yù)報(bào)和氣候預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)展的重要方向。本文以上海梅汛期降水為例,利用非傳統(tǒng)濾波方法提取多變量季節(jié)內(nèi)分量,分析了梅汛期季節(jié)內(nèi)候降水異常及其相聯(lián)系的延伸期關(guān)鍵低頻信號(hào),進(jìn)一步綜合多變量低頻信號(hào)建立了梅汛期候降水異常延伸期預(yù)報(bào)方法,并開展了多年的回報(bào)和試報(bào)檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明:①梅汛期候降水異常季節(jié)內(nèi)分量具有顯著的40~60 d低頻振蕩周期,與降水異常實(shí)況具有顯著的正相關(guān)和較高的符號(hào)一致率;②梅汛期季節(jié)內(nèi)候降水異常與超前10~35 d的熱帶及中高緯低頻信號(hào)有關(guān),主要包括:熱帶MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)自阿拉伯海的向東傳播、西太平洋副熱帶高壓季節(jié)內(nèi)活動(dòng)的西北向傳播、PNA(PacificNorth American)遙相關(guān)型的季節(jié)內(nèi)位相轉(zhuǎn)換以及東北亞冷空氣的持續(xù)性異常影響;③綜合上述多變量低頻信號(hào)建立了延伸期候降水異常預(yù)報(bào)模型,對(duì)提前10~35 d的延伸期候降水異常的季節(jié)內(nèi)分量具有預(yù)報(bào)技巧,也能較好地預(yù)報(bào)實(shí)際的候降水異常趨勢(shì)。

    Abstract:

    Improving the capability of extendedrange forecast of precipitation during the Meiyu season has become an important research area for operational developments of both weather forecast and climate prediction. By taking the Meiyu season in Shanghai as an example, this paper analyzes the characteristics of intraseasonal pentad anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and its associating key lowfrequency signals on the extendedrange scale through investigating multivariable intraseasonal components extracted by nontraditional filtering. An extendedrange forecast model of pentad precipitation anomalies during the Meiyu season is further established by integrating the multivariable lowfrequency signals, and the performances of the forecast model are evaluated by the hindcasts and forecast experiments. Results show that: (1) The intraseasonal component of pentad precipitation anomaly during the Meiyu season has significant features of 40 to 60 day lowfrequency oscillation, which also has an significant positive correlation and high sign consistency rate with the observed precipitation anomaly. (2) The intraseasonal pentad anomaly of Meiyu precipitation is related to the low frequency signals from both tropics and the middlehigh latitudes, such as the eastward propagation of tropical MJO from the Arabian sea, the northwestward propagation of the western Pacific subtropical high, the intraseasonal phase conversion of PNA (PacificNorth American) teleconnection and the persistent anomaly influences of cold air activities in Northeast Asia. (3) The extendedrange forecast model of the pentad precipitation anomalies by integrating the above multivariable lowfrequency signals is statistically skillful to forecast the intraseasonal component of pentad precipitation anomalies with a leading time of 10 to 35 days. It also shows outstanding capability in predicting the trend of the observed pentad precipitation anomaly.

    參考文獻(xiàn)
    相似文獻(xiàn)
    引證文獻(xiàn)
引用本文

梁萍,楊子凡,謝瀟,錢琦雯,常越.上海梅汛期候降水異常的低頻信號(hào)及延伸期預(yù)報(bào)[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):685~694

復(fù)制
分享
文章指標(biāo)
  • 點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
  • 下載次數(shù):
  • HTML閱讀次數(shù):
  • 引用次數(shù):
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-13
  • 定稿日期:2020-01-10
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-10-26
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術(shù)支持:北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司
宁波市| 平山县| 当阳市| 木兰县| 青海省| 彭水| 鄢陵县| 资阳市| 鄂尔多斯市| 堆龙德庆县| 双流县| 岳池县| 安仁县| 苍山县| 桦南县| 汾西县| 沿河| 望城县| 故城县| 黄龙县| 广州市| 繁峙县| 琼结县| 农安县| 赫章县| 射阳县| 福贡县| 陈巴尔虎旗| 县级市| 宁化县| 正阳县| 耒阳市| 湖南省| 工布江达县| 新干县| 孝感市| 武义县| 北川| 古交市| 广水市| 云阳县|