基于EC細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值預(yù)報產(chǎn)品的太陽輻照度訂正技術(shù)
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河北省科技廳項目(19214310D)、河北省氣象局項目“基于多數(shù)據(jù)源的輻照度預(yù)報訂正技術(shù)研究”共同資助


Stepwise Revision of Solar Irradiance Based on EC Fine-Grid Numerical Forecast Products
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    摘要:

    太陽輻照度與光伏電站發(fā)電功率密切相關(guān),其預(yù)報的準(zhǔn)確性直接影響發(fā)電功率預(yù)報的準(zhǔn)確性。根據(jù)光伏電站太陽輻照度實況、氣象站實況、WRF(Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式輻照度預(yù)報、EC細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值預(yù)報以及太陽理論輻照度,利用逐步回歸法開展太陽輻照度預(yù)報訂正研究,得到以下結(jié)論:①太陽輻照度實況與太陽理論輻照度的比值與EC細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值預(yù)報中氣象要素的相關(guān)性優(yōu)于太陽輻照度實況與氣象要素的相關(guān)性;②不同時刻影響太陽輻照度的氣象因子存在差異,通過逐步回歸法建立不同時刻太陽輻照度預(yù)報模型;③在非晴天情況下,回歸預(yù)報輻照度相對均方根誤差比WRF模式預(yù)報輻照度降低10%左右,減小了輻照度預(yù)報誤差。該研究成果在光伏電站的新能源數(shù)值預(yù)報服務(wù)中有一定的應(yīng)用價值。

    Abstract:

    Solar irradiance is closely related to the power generation of photovoltaic power plants, and the accuracy of irradiance forecast directly affects the accuracy of power generation forecast. Based on the reality of solar irradiance of the photovoltaic power plants and weather stations, WRF model irradiance forecast, the EC fine grid numerical forecast, and theoretical solar irradiance, a study of the revised solar irradiance forecast is carried out by means of stepwise regression. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the correlation between irradiance ratio and meteorological elements is better than that between irradiance and meteorological elements; (2) there are differences in meteorological factors that affect solar irradiance at different times, and a prediction model of solar irradiance at different times is established through the stepwise regression method; (3) in the case of nonclear weather, the RMSE of the regressed prediction irradiance is about 10% lower than that of the WRF model. The results have some application value in the new energy numerical forecasting service for photovoltaic power stations.

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武輝芹,時珉,趙增保,尹瑞.基于EC細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值預(yù)報產(chǎn)品的太陽輻照度訂正技術(shù)[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):752~757

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-15
  • 定稿日期:2019-11-25
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-10-26
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