成都市秋桂開花早晚的氣象影響因子分析
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高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災(zāi)害四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室科技發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目(省重實(shí)驗(yàn)室2018重點(diǎn)0509)資助


Analysis of Meteorological Affecting Factors During Flowering Period of Autumn Osmanthus in Chengdu
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    基于成都市2004—2017年桂花物候觀測與氣象資料,運(yùn)用相關(guān)分析法和因子分析法開展成都市秋桂花前四周氣象因子研究,結(jié)果表明:①開花期與花前第1周平均最低氣溫、降水量呈負(fù)相關(guān),花前1周日最低氣溫高,降雨充沛則利于加快秋桂開花進(jìn)程。②采用因子分析法提取了溫光主成分、降雨主成分,溫光主成分與秋桂開花期關(guān)系最為密切,溫度對(duì)秋桂開花起主導(dǎo)作用。③運(yùn)用第1主成分與第2主成分的方差貢獻(xiàn)率建立了花期綜合評(píng)價(jià)得分模型,花前第4周(7月下旬至8月中旬)是影響秋桂開花的重要影響周期,同時(shí)是秋桂花芽分化完成的重要時(shí)期,花芽分化完成的早晚可影響秋桂開花的早晚。相關(guān)分析法和因子分析法兩種方法綜合運(yùn)用可以更好地反映氣象因子之間的相互關(guān)系,揭示氣象因子對(duì)秋桂開花的影響規(guī)律,為成都市秋桂花期氣象服務(wù)提供了科技支撐。

    Abstract:

    Correlation analysis and factor analysis are used to study the relationship between the flowering of autumn osmanthus and the meteorological factors four weeks before flowering, based on the osmanthus phenology data and the meteorological data from 2004 to 2017 in Chengdu. The results show: (1) There is a negative correlation between the flowering stage and the average minimum temperature and precipitation in one week before flowering. The higher the minimum temperature in the week before flowering, the more abundant the precipitation, and the earlier the flowering is. (2) The main components of temperature and light and rainfall are extracted by factor analysis. The main components of temperature and light are most closely related to the flowering period of autumn osmanthus, and temperature played a leading role in the flowering of autumn osmanthus. (3) A score model for the comprehensive evaluation of flowering period is established by using the variance contribution rate of the first principal component and the second principal component. The period of 4 weeks before flowering (from late July to midAugust) is an important period for flowering, and also for the completion of flower bud differentiation. The comprehensive application of correlation analysis and factor analysis can better reflect the relationship between meteorological factors and the flowering of autumn osmanthus, reveal the influence of meteorological factors on the flowering, and provide scientific and technological supports for the meteorological service for autumn osmanthus flowering in Chengdu.

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陳樂,陳林,王明田.成都市秋桂開花早晚的氣象影響因子分析[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):774~778

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  • 收稿日期:2019-08-26
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-22
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-10-26
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