近60年永興島熱帶氣旋降水的氣候特征分析
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海南省氣象局青年基金項(xiàng)目(HNQXQN201806)資助


Climatic Features of Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones in Yongxing Island in Recent 60 Years
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    摘要:

    對(duì)1958—2019年期間,進(jìn)入永興島及附近區(qū)域(11.5°~21.5°N,101.2°~117.5°E)范圍內(nèi)的熱帶氣旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)的氣候特征進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明:①永興島平均每年受9.4個(gè)TC影響,TC有顯著的下降趨勢(shì),以0.68個(gè)/10a逐漸減少,趨勢(shì)系數(shù)為-0.406;②永興島TC路徑分為5類:向西直行偏北類(A類)、向西直行偏南類(B類)、轉(zhuǎn)向東北類(C類)、轉(zhuǎn)向西南類(D類)、從西向東北類(E類),〖JP2〗其中A類占比最大,占52.0%;③TC年均降水有顯著的下降趨勢(shì),其回歸系數(shù)為-61.76 mm/10a,趨勢(shì)系數(shù)為-0.270;④TC活動(dòng)對(duì)永興島強(qiáng)降雨貢獻(xiàn)最多,達(dá)到67.8%,其他天氣系統(tǒng)對(duì)永興島強(qiáng)降雨的貢獻(xiàn)僅為32.2%,年均TC強(qiáng)降雨日數(shù)為4.1 d,非TC強(qiáng)降雨日數(shù)為2.8 d,TC強(qiáng)降雨對(duì)總強(qiáng)降雨的貢獻(xiàn)率無明顯的趨勢(shì)變化,其回歸系數(shù)為0.57/10a,趨勢(shì)系數(shù)為0.055,而TC強(qiáng)降雨日數(shù)的貢獻(xiàn)率則呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),其回歸系數(shù)為-4.7/10a,趨勢(shì)系數(shù)為-0.335,通過α=0.01顯著性檢驗(yàn)。〖JP〗

    Abstract:

    This paper analyzes the climatic characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) centers that entered the range of 10°×10° (longitude×latitude) around Yongxing Island from 1958 to 2019. The results show that the Yongxing Island is influenced averagely by 9.4 TCs in a year, and the TCs show a significant (α=0.01) decreasing trend in 0.67 every decade (an trend coefficient of -0.406). This paper divides the TC paths in Yongxing Island into five categories: northwestward moving (A), southwestward moving (B), northeastward turning (C), southwestward turning (D), northeastward turning from west (E), of which Type A accounts for 52.0%. The annual rainfall caused by TCs exhibits a significant (α=0.05) decreasing trend (an regression coefficient of -61.76, an trend coefficient of -0.27). TC activities contribute the most to the heavy rainfall of Yongxing Island, reaching 67.8%, while the contribution of other weather systems is only 32.2%. The annual average number of rain days caused by typhoon is 4.1, while that caused by the others is 2.8 days. The contribution of Typhoon Rainstorms to annual storm rainfall shows no obvious variation trend (an regression coefficient of 0.57, an trend coefficient of 0.055), but the contribution of typhoon rainstorm days to annual rainstorm days shows a significant (α=0.01) decreasing trend (a regression coefficient of 4.7, a trend coefficient of -0.33).

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周宇,凌芬曼,施晨曉.近60年永興島熱帶氣旋降水的氣候特征分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(1):69~76

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-24
  • 定稿日期:2020-07-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-03-04
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