氣象探空火箭測風(fēng)不確定度評估方法
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Method for Evaluating Uncertainty of Wind Measurements for Meteorological Sounding Rocket
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    摘要:

    本文在氣象火箭測風(fēng)反演數(shù)學(xué)模型基礎(chǔ)上,通過誤差分析理論和曲線擬合最小二乘原理,對大氣風(fēng)場反演結(jié)果不確定度的評估方法進(jìn)行了研究。根據(jù)火箭探空儀在空中的運(yùn)動規(guī)律,首先建立數(shù)學(xué)反演模型,推導(dǎo)得到風(fēng)速和風(fēng)向的計(jì)算公式;然后根據(jù)誤差理論,推導(dǎo)得出反演風(fēng)速和風(fēng)向的不確定度表達(dá)式;基于多項(xiàng)式擬合方法,進(jìn)一步推導(dǎo)得出擬合后的風(fēng)速和風(fēng)向的系統(tǒng)誤差和隨機(jī)誤差公式,并求解公式中系數(shù)。最后以1次氣象火箭實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù)為例,對風(fēng)場及其不確定度進(jìn)行了分析計(jì)算。結(jié)果表明:風(fēng)速反演不確定度隨高度降低而減小,在50~60 km高度不確定度約為2.8~3.5 m/s,50 km以下不確定度在1 m/s以內(nèi);風(fēng)向在正北方向(0°)附近擺動時(shí),會導(dǎo)致反演不確定度異常增大,其他高度不確定度基本在10°以內(nèi)。

    Abstract:

    Based on the inversion model of wind measurement for meteorological rockets, the method for evaluating the uncertainty of wind inversion results is studied by the error theory and curve fitting least square principle. According to the motion law of the rocket sonde in the air, a mathematical model is established and the inversion function of wind speed and wind direction is derived. According to the error theory, the general expressions of the uncertainty of wind speed and wind direction are given. Based on the principle of polynomial least square fitting, the formulas of the systematic error and random error of wind speed and direction are derived, and the coefficients in the formulas are obtained. Taking the measured data as an example, the above formulas are used to analyze and calculate the atmospheric wind and the uncertainty. The results show that the uncertainty of wind speed decreases with the decrease of height. The uncertainty is 3.5 to 2.8 m/s in the 60 to 50 km, and less than 1 m/s below 50 km. When the wind direction is around the north (0°), the inversion uncertainty of wind direction will increase abnormally, and the inversion uncertainty is basically within 10° in the other cases.

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孫宇,陳書馳,邵勝利,蔡俊武,何億強(qiáng),王芳棟,史薈燕.氣象探空火箭測風(fēng)不確定度評估方法[J].氣象科技,2021,49(2):174~183

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  • 收稿日期:2020-05-21
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-04-25
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