基于多源數(shù)據(jù)融合的云南省雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41265001)、云南省科技廳科技惠民專項(xiàng)(2016RA096)資助


Comprehensive Evaluation and Zoning of Lightning Disaster Risks in Yunnan Province Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion
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    根據(jù)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論,結(jié)合氣象數(shù)據(jù)、地理信息、人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)資料等開展雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià),研究致災(zāi)因子、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和承災(zāi)體等因子與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量化關(guān)系,建立評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)和層次分析模型,運(yùn)用模糊綜合判斷和聚類分析等方法計(jì)算綜合評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù)并劃分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。結(jié)果表明:雷電災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)主要集中在滇中、滇西南及滇西北的麗江東南部等地區(qū);次高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)分布于西雙版納、普洱、昆明、楚雄、曲靖西部、玉溪北部及大理中部等地;中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)分布最廣,主要集中在臨滄、德宏、曲靖、紅河、麗江及文山北部等;迪慶、怒江和昭通的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值較低,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果與歷史雷電災(zāi)情的分布進(jìn)行對(duì)比,兩者對(duì)應(yīng)情況較好。開展基于災(zāi)前防御的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,研究雷電活動(dòng)影響范圍和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),有助于提前控制和處置風(fēng)險(xiǎn),隨著技術(shù)方法的不斷改進(jìn),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的置信度和可靠性也將得到提升。

    Abstract:

    According to the theory of natural disaster risk, combined with the meteorological observation data, geographic information, population, and economic data, the comprehensive evaluation of lightning disaster risks is carried out. This paper studies the quantitative relationship between the risk and the disastercausing factor, disasterbreeding environment, and disaster bearing body, establishes the evaluation index and the AHP model, calculates the comprehensive evaluation index, divides the regional risk levels by the fuzzy comprehensive judgment and cluster analysis, and draws the lightning disaster risk zoning map. The results show that: the highrisk areas of lightning disasters are mainly concentrated in the central and southwestern Yunnan, and the southeastern Lijiang in Northwest Yunnan; the secondary highrisk areas are distributed in Xishuangbanna, Puer, Kunming, Chuxiong, the western Qujing, northern Yuxi and central Dali; medium risk areas are mainly concentrated in Lincang, Dehong, Qujing, Honghe, Lijiang, and the northern Wenshan; the lowrisk areas are mainly located in Diqing, Nujiang, and Zhaotong. The results of risk zoning are compared with the distribution of historical lightning disasters, which correspond well. To carry out the risk analysis based on predisaster defense, judge and evaluate the possibility of regional lightning risk, and analyze the influence scope and risk level of disaster causing factors, are helpful to control and dispose risks in advance, and provide references for defense decisionmaking, risk management, and emergency disposal. With the improvement of information and technical methods, the confidence and reliability of risk assessment will also be improved.

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劉平英,張騰飛,尹麗云,周清倩,楊曉鵬.基于多源數(shù)據(jù)融合的云南省雷電災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃[J].氣象科技,2021,49(2):269~277

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-11
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-16
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-04-25
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