未來氣候變化背景下貴州省夏季旅游氣候資源的變化預(yù)估
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貴州省氣象局科研業(yè)務(wù)項目(黔氣科登[2021]0107號)、中國氣象局氣候變化專項[CCSF201915]和國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41865005)資助


Climate Projection of Summer Tourism Resources over Guizhou under Background of Global Warming
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    摘要:

    利用區(qū)域氣候模式(RegCM4)1951—2005年歷史模擬和2006—2099年RCP8.5(高排放)和RCP4.5(中排放)情景下的逐日平均氣溫、降水量、10 m風(fēng)速和入射輻射通量,給出21世紀(jì)貴州省夏季與全國其他地區(qū)的旅游氣候資源時空對比。結(jié)果表明:未來貴州省夏季平均氣溫的增幅在兩種排放情景下均小于全國的增幅,且2050年以后RCP4.5(低排放)情景下的增溫幅度低于RCP8.5(高排放)情景。而其他氣候要素(夏季降水量,10 m風(fēng)速和輻射)基本上沒有表現(xiàn)出明顯的變化趨勢。空間分布來看,貴州省21世紀(jì)不同階段在兩種排放情景下其夏季平均氣溫增幅低于北部和西部大部分區(qū)域、與云南省增幅接近,但未來云南省主要以夏季輻射增加的態(tài)勢為主,尤其是21世紀(jì)中遠(yuǎn)期RCP8.5(高排放)情景下更是位于夏季輻射增加的大值中心。因此綜合來看,未來夏季貴州省增溫幅度較小且降水量、10 m風(fēng)速和輻射變化不大,將繼續(xù)維持良好的夏季避暑旅游氣候資源優(yōu)勢。同時大力提倡環(huán)保減排是維持并進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大貴州省避暑旅游資源優(yōu)勢的有力措施。

    Abstract:

    Under the historical simulation during 1951-2005 and two different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission including RCP 8.5 and 4.5 over 2006-2099, the daily mean temperature, precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux from the RegCM4 model are examined in this study in order to find out the comparison of temporal and spatial climate change in summer tourism resources between Guizhou and other regions in China over the 21 century. Results show that the increase of mean temperature in summer over Guizhou under two scenarios will be smaller that of the whole nation, and the warming amplitude after 2050 under RCP4.5 (low emission) scenario would be lower than that under RCP8.5 (high emission) scenario. There was no obvious change in other factors including precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the increase in summer mean temperature over Guizhou would be less than that in the northern and western regions in China during the 21st century under the two RCPs scenarios, though close to that in Yunnan. However, Yunnan would be dominated by the trend of increasing incident solar energy flux in summer, especially located in the highvalue center of rising under the RCP8.5 〖JP2〗(higher emission) in the midlate 21st century. Generally, Guizhou would continue keeping the advantage in summer tourism climate resources on account of the less increasing mean temperature and little changes in precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux in the future. Moreover, environmental protection for emission reduction should be adopted to maintain and further expand the advantages of summer tourism resources in Guizhou.〖JP〗

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張嬌艷,王玥彤,李揚(yáng),牟佳,丁立國.未來氣候變化背景下貴州省夏季旅游氣候資源的變化預(yù)估[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):399~405

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-11
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-16
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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