SWCWARMS模式小時(shí)降水量時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)研究
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四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室項(xiàng)目(省重實(shí)驗(yàn)室2018重點(diǎn)06、SCQXKJZD2019001、SCQXKJZD2021013)、中國(guó)局預(yù)報(bào)員專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(CMAYBY2020110)和中國(guó)局氣象關(guān)鍵技術(shù)項(xiàng)目(YBGJXM(2020)2A14)共同資助


Time-Lagged Ensemble Forecast of Hourly Precipitation Based on SWCWARMS Model
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    摘要:

    基于SWCWARMS模式9 km×9 km分辨率逐小時(shí)降水預(yù)報(bào),通過(guò)時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)方法構(gòu)建多個(gè)集合成員,使用SAL評(píng)分值計(jì)算相應(yīng)集合成員的權(quán)重系數(shù),進(jìn)行不等權(quán)集合平均,從而得到新的逐小時(shí)降水預(yù)報(bào)。利用SAL、TS和BIAS檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)四川省2019年8月的逐小時(shí)降水量時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)及相應(yīng)的SWCWARMS模式最新時(shí)次預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,結(jié)果表明:①時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)SAL檢驗(yàn)的L值和A值都較模式預(yù)報(bào)更接近于0,較好地改善了降水位置和強(qiáng)度的整體預(yù)報(bào)水平;②時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)逐小時(shí)降水晴雨TS評(píng)分提升明顯,評(píng)分提高百分率在10%左右,有效地減小了模式在晴雨方面的空?qǐng)?bào);③臨近預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效,時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)方法對(duì)于大量級(jí)降水預(yù)報(bào)也有較好的訂正效果。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly precipitation from the 9 km×9 km resolution SWCWARMS model, ensemble members are formed by the timelagged ensemble forecast method. A new hourly precipitation forecast is obtained from the ensemble average of differential weights, which are calculated by the SAL scores of ensemble members. This study verified the timelagged ensemble and the model uptodate forecast of hourly precipitation in Sichuan from 1 to 31 August 2019 by the SAL, TS and BIAS evaluation method. The results show: (1) The timelagged ensemble method led to improvement on the overall level of the rainfall intensity and location forecast. The values L and A of SAL scores were both closer to 0. (2) The clearrain TS score of timelagged ensemble forecast was higher, and the percentage increase was about 10%. The method can reduce the false alarm of rain forecast. (3) In the lead time of nowcasting, the improvement of the high intensity precipitation forecast was also obvious.

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張武龍,王彬雁,陳朝平,馮漢中. SWCWARMS模式小時(shí)降水量時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)研究[J].氣象科技,2021,49(4):561~568

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-10
  • 定稿日期:2020-12-29
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2021-08-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-08-31
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