GRAPES-GFS模式2 m溫度預(yù)報的最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正方法
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廣西壯族自治區(qū)氣象局氣象科研計劃項目(桂氣科2019M06和桂氣科2021Z03)資助


Moving Average of Optimal Time-Window Method For 2 m Temperature Forecast Correction of GRAPES-GFS
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    摘要:

    利用2017—2018年GRAPESGFS模式預(yù)報資料和廣西區(qū)域自動站逐時氣溫觀測資料,分析模式預(yù)報偏差特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)GRAPESGFS模式對廣西區(qū)域2 m溫度的預(yù)報系統(tǒng)性偏低,隨著預(yù)報時效增加,預(yù)報偏差增大,系統(tǒng)性偏差主要出現(xiàn)在桂北山區(qū)、左右江河谷及沿海;春夏秋三季的午后氣溫預(yù)報偏差有明顯的系統(tǒng)性,冬季午后氣溫和四季凌晨氣溫預(yù)報偏差的隨機(jī)性較大。為了確定滑動訂正的最優(yōu)時窗,通過活動時窗長度的方法,設(shè)計不同的滑動訂正方案,制定最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正方案,并進(jìn)一步利用2020年最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正業(yè)務(wù)試驗產(chǎn)品,對比驗證了該方案的訂正效果。結(jié)果表明:分別采用固定時窗、季節(jié)最優(yōu)時窗、月份最優(yōu)時窗等滑動平均訂正方案進(jìn)行訂正,春夏秋3季的訂正效果明顯好于冬季、午后訂正技巧高于夜間,其中固定時窗滑動平均方案中的長時窗(15~60 d)訂正、季節(jié)最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正以及月份最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正這幾種方式訂正效果最優(yōu);所制定的最優(yōu)時窗滑動平均訂正方案,可以在不同滑動方案的基礎(chǔ)上穩(wěn)定地提高預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率,達(dá)到最優(yōu)時窗滑動的目的。

    Abstract:

    Using GRAPESGFS forecast data and temperature observation data of Guangxi regional automatic weather stations during 2017-2018, errors of the 2 m temperature forecast of the GRAPESGFS model over Guangxi are analyzed. It is found that the 2 m temperature forecast of the GRAPESGFS model is lower than the observation in Guangxi. Forecast errors increase with the forecast time and regularly appear in the mountain areas in the northern Guangxi, Zuojiang, Youjiang river valley, and coastal areas. The temperature forecast error at noon is systematic in spring, summer and autumn but the errors at noon in winter and that at night in all seasons are random. To develop the optimal timewindow of the moving average method, we compare different moving average solutions with the unfixed timewindows and verify its improvement with the trial correction products of the optimal timewindow moving average method during 2020. Results show that the moving average solutions of fixed timewindow, optimal seasonal timewindow, and monthly optimal time window are all effective in spring, summer, and autumn. The correction skill is higher at noon than that at night. Among all the solutions, fixed long timewindow (15 to 60 d) solution, seasonal optimal timewindow solution and monthly optimal timewindow solution are more effective. Running optimal timewindow method based on different moving average solutions can steadily improve the 2 m temperature forecast.

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何珊珊,藍(lán)盈,戚云楓. GRAPES-GFS模式2 m溫度預(yù)報的最優(yōu)時窗滑動訂正方法[J].氣象科技,2021,49(5):746~753

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-24
  • 定稿日期:2021-06-09
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-10-26
  • 出版日期: 2021-10-31
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