Preliminary Study of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Method for Landfalling Typhoon
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Abstract:
By using GMS-5 IR1 TBB of landfalling typhoon(LT) and hourly rainfall from ground automatic weather stations,a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) suitable for LT was found.Based on the results from the QPE method,the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast of 0 h to 3 h(QPF) for LT can be realized with the extrapolation method preliminarily.The applications of the QPF method to 0104 LT Utor and 0414 LT Rananim show that as far as single station hourly rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0 h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can reach 20% to 70%,30% to 80%,30% to 70%,and 20% to 60%,respectively;as far as single station process rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can all almost reach 60% to 80%;quantitative forecast for 0 h to 3 h area rainfall can also be provided,to a certain extent.The QPF results of 0 to 3 hours can serve as a reference for the operational short-term operational precipitation forecast for LT,to some degree.
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P458.124 P457.6
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.