Climatic Forecasting of Droughts in South China
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Abstract:
The characteristics of drought years are analyzed and the rainfall anomalies of the next 10 years are predicted on the basis of the rainfall data of 15 stations in South China from 1951 (1961) to 2003. The critical annualrainfall amount of each station is calculated by means of the range analysis method, and the assessment is made of severe and common drought years. The results show that the variation of annual rainfall in South China is highly periodic: common droughts occur once every 4.3 years and severe droughts every 14.3 years from 1961 to 2003. Some drought/flood forecasting methods are introduced, such as exponential function method, multiperiod characteristicvalue superposition method, nonlinear integrated climate forecasting method, and optimal teleconnection analysis method. The ensemble prediction for the next 10 years in South China is: the rainfall will be more than the normal in 2005, less than the normal from 2006 to 2008, and more than the normal again from 2009 to 2012.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.