Application of Consensus Method to Forecast of Tropical Cyclones
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Abstract:
Several kinds of numerical forecast products are available operationally at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China. It is necessary to apply the consensus method to improve the efficiency of using these objective and subjective data. The consensus methods for using certain forecast products to forecast the tracks and intensities of tropical cyclones are experimented on the cyclones occurred over the western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2004. Three methods are used to build the consensus forecast equations respectively. The objective and quantitative verification results show that the forecast precision could be improved observably with the consensus method. This method can help forecasters make more accurate movement and intensity predictions of tropical cyclones.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.