Climatic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over South China Sea
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Abstract:
The correlation coefficients between tropical cyclone frequency and geopotential height field of 500 hPa and seasurface temperature (SST) of the Pacific Ocean are calculated. By analyzing the statistical characteristics of those in highly significant regions, an investigation is conducted on their synoptic and climatological significance and physical characteristics. Several high correlated factors (selected and combined) are used to construct the dynamic prediction binomial equations to predict the yearly and monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea and Guangdong Province. The results show that the prediction model has high fitting ability and performs well.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.