Characteristics of Thunderstorm Weather and GANN Predicting Model Based on the Thunderstorm Disaster Variation in Suzhou
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Abstract:
According to the data of thunderstorm days of five weather stations in Suzhou from 1957 to 2008, the timespace distribution of thunderstorms and the relationship of thunderstorms to rainfall and temperature in Suzhou are analyzed. The results show that Suzhou is an area attacked frequently by Lightning, and more lightning activities happen in the south part than in the north, with maximum difference being 3.21 to 4.65 days. There is great interannual variability of thunderstorm weather in Suzhou, and the annual cumulative number of thunderstorm days is up to 37 days. There is a linear decreasing trend in thunderstorm days with the range being 1.61 to 2.89 days per 10 years. Thunderstorm days exhibit a singlepeak type seasonal distribution, occur mostly in summer and least in winter, and centralized in the period from April to September, with maximum in July and minimum in December. The daily distribution is also the singlepeak type, with the maximum frequency from 16:00 to 18:00. The longrange mean series of average thunderstorm days has significantly positive correlation with rainfall and temperature. In order to predict the trend of thunderstorms, taking Yongqiao as an example, the greyBP combined model is built, and the results show that the year of 2025 is the next year of thunderstorms occurring most frequently.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.