Application of Analog Forecast to 4-10 Day Wind Forecasting around Bohai Sea
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Abstract:
According to the principles of analog forecast, the stepbystep filter and the smallest degree of analogue deviation are applied to make 4to10day wind forecast for the area around Bohai Sea based on the T213 numerical forecast products, NCEP reanalyzed daily data, and the wind speed data of 72 stations around Bohai Sea. Various forecast schemes for 4 to 10 days are established. Forecast results were tested to choose the optimal scheme, which is used to forecast wind speeds four times per day and the daily maximum wind speeds for 72 stations around Bohai sea from 2007 to 2008. The results show that the TS score for windscale 0 to 2 forecast is better in forecasting wind speeds four times per day, and the 4to10day mean TS score is 67%; the 4to10day mean TS score for wind scale 3 to 4 of maximum daily wind speed forecast is 54.1%; above wind scale 5, the 4to10day mean TS score is 17.1%. The results also indicate that the analog method is of good capability in 4to10day wind speed forecasting.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.