Prediction of Flowering Beginning of Pear Trees in Fengxian
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Abstract:
The relationships between the dates of initial blooming of pear trees and meteorological factors are analyzed based on the temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data of Fengxian from 1984 to 2009. The results indicate: (1) the influence of the meteorological factors in the late period is greater compared to that in the previous period; (2) the influence of temperature and sunshine is obvious, and that of precipitation is small. The greater the temperature and the more the sunshine, the earlier the pear trees flower; on the contrary, the later the pear trees flowering. From December to next January (except the late December), the higher the maximum temperatures, the lower the chilling requirement to be accumulated, the later the flowering; the lower the maximum temperature (the accumulation of chilling requirement is conducive to dormancy release), the earlier the flowering. By means of the method of stepwise regression using the SPSS software, a model is established to predict the beginning of the flowering period, the accuracy of which can meet the requirements of operational meteorological service to the government and farmers.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.