Quality Test of Refined Guidance SCMOC Temperature Prediction in Shaanxi Province
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Abstract:
According the comparison between observation temperature from stations and SCMOC refined guidance temperature forecast starting at 00:00GMT and 12:00GMT for 366 days in 2012 for 99 stations over Shaanxi, the characteristics of prediction errors of three hourly predicted temperature, daily maximum, and minimum temperature are annalyzed. The result shows: the accuracy of the predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT is better than that starting at 12:00GMT, and there is obvious seasonal variation, higher in summer and autumn, lower in winter and spring. The accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperature prediction has negative correlation with lead time, and the topographic height influences the accuracy of temperature prediction remarkably. The three hourly predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT for 48 hours has greater negative errors, but that starting at 12:00GMT has greater positive errors. The predicted daily maximum and minimum temperatures are often smaller than observations, except the predicted minimum temperature starting at 00:00GMT. The accuracy of temperature prediction is lower in obvious temperature drop weather, comparing with other weather, according to the quality test of temperature prediction in different weather conditions.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.