Characteristics and Forecasting of Strong Wind Gusts in Bohai Bay
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Abstract:
Using the wind data of two stations in the Bohai Bay from 1988 to 2010, the characteristics of over 17 m/s strong wind are analyzed. The analysis concludes that in winter, the prevailing wind direction for strong wind is northwest, and in spring, summer, and autumn, the prevailing wind direction is northeast, occasionally south wind; over the Bohai Sea, strong wind of grade 10 plus mainly appears in October, November, and December; the annual distribution of strong wind exhibits a two peak and two valley pattern, most frequently in November and least in August. According to the principles of synoptic meteorology and statistic screening, it is found that the extreme wind speed of strong wind has good correlation with the maximum wind speed of the day. The regression prediction equations of the extreme wind speed and the maximum wind speed of the day on the different underlying surface (sea, land surface) are established. The forecast equations passed the test of α=001, with a fitting rate of 75% to 94%. The method is used to revise the WRF numerical forecast wind, substituted into the regression equation to calculate strong wind quickly.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.