Assessment of Winter Temperature and Rainfall Forecasts over North China with RegCM_NCC
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Abstract:
The hindcast experiments of winter temperature and rainfall over North China from 1991 to 2010 are carried out by using a regional climate model (RegCM_NCC) nested a global atmosphere ocean coupled model (CGCM_NCC). Five operational assessment parameters of the National Climate Center are used to assess the hindcast of winter temperature and rainfall of RegCM_NCC from 1991 to 2010 The results show the averaged P score of the winter temperature is 704, and the scores in most years are greater than 60, those in 11 year are greater than 80 Compared with the random forecast skill and forecast skill of climate 11 years hindcast display positive skill. The P score of winter precipitation in 13 years are greater than 60, and the average is 663 Compared with the random forecast skill, the 8 year hindcast displays positive skill. Compared with the forecast skill of climate, the 11 year hindcast displays also positive skill. Either negative sea surface temperature anomaly in Nino 34 region or negative EA/WR index in winter may enhance the P score of winter temperature.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.