Hazard Analysis of Continuous Droughts in Southwestern Sichuan Based on Copula Function
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Abstract:
Based on the seasonal precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 in the southwestern Sichuan, combining the percentages of precipitation anomaly, the Copula method is applied to construct the hazard evaluation model of continuous droughts between adjacent seasons for each weather station in the southwestern Sichuan. The results indicate that the Copula function can be applied to construct the hazard evaluation model of continuous droughts between adjacent quarters at each station in the southwestern Sichuan. It is concluded:（1） the hazard degree of spring and summer continuous droughts is the lowest in the southwestern Sichuan, as low as 452% in Leshan.（2） the hazard degree of winter and spring continuous droughts is the highest， high up to 2899% in Panzhihua. （3） by contrast, the hazard degree of spring and summer continuous drought for Panzhihua is the highest, while the lowest in Leshan. For the same kind of continuous droughts, the risks for different stations are different. In general, when there are severe droughts in the adjacent seasons, the risk of continuous droughts is the lowest; when there are light droughts in the adjacent seasons, the risk of continuous drought was the highest.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.