Forecasting Model of WeatherSensitive Load in Wuhan in Summer
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Abstract:
By using the daily electricity data and meteorological data from 2009 to 2010 in Wuhan, an algorithm is presented based on the load decompositon, in which the daily maximum load is divided into the fundamental load and the weathersensitive load related to the weathersensitive load index that integrates the synthetically influence of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed.By using the method of correlation ratio, the nonlinear relation between weathersensitive load and sensitive load index is analyzed， and the changing ratio between weathersensitive load index and load is analyzed. Based on the least meansquared deviation and nonlinear generalized least square, the polynomial forecasting model for weathersensitive load in Wuhan power grid in summer is established. Application tests show that the mean predicting errors are about 6 percent in summer from 2011 to 2012. Thus, the model can be used in the meteorological service in power grid dispatching in summer.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.