Application of IngredientsBased Forecasting Methodology to ShortTerm Climate Prediction
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Abstract:
A precipitation index is designed and calculated, selecting such factors to be ingredients of IngredientsBased Forecasting Methodology as the divergence of nongeostrophic wet 〖WTHX〗Q〖WTBZ〗vector, MPV, and total volume water vapor. It is found that the precipitation index is in good agreement with real precipitation in value and trends. The precipitation index can reflect the wet and dry periods. With the NCEP CFSv2 data of April to June 2014, the precipitation index is calculated. The monthly precipitation index value can well reflect the maximum rainfall in May (usually in June). Ingredient method can provide a useful reference for shortterm climate prediction.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.