Application Test of a Probability Method in Forecasting Coastal Gusts of Tropical Cyclones in Zhejiang
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Abstract:
Using the data of typhoons influencing Zhejiang from 2004 to 2013 and the corresponding winds of 9 coastal meteorological stations, the characteristics of gust ratio and its relationship with the latitude, altitude, and distance from coast to stations are analyzed. The results show that with the increasing of average wind, the gust ratio has decreasing tendency. The gust ratios of stations with less distance away from coast or less altitude are relatively larger. The relationship between typhoon parameters and gust ratio is analyzed. The ratio of the radius of grade7 wind circle to the distance of the station from typhoon center is well correlated with gust ratio. Based on the quantile regression, the probability forecast models are developed. The forecast tests show that the hit rates of 50% and 90% are obtained for most stations, and its variation is generally within a range of 3%.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.