Rolling Correction Methods for Global Radiation Forecasting
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Abstract:
Based on the hourly global radiation data collected at Beijing Weather Observatory and 24hour forecasting data of 14 conventional meteorological elements using the BJRUC model, three linear correction methods are used to correct the forecasted global radiation data. Seasonal differences of corrected effects using different correction schemes and sample numbers are discussed in detail. The best rolling correction schemes are investigated. Results show: (1) Influencing factors for correcting global radiation are different in 4 seasons, and primary factors such as global radiation, specific humidity and relative humidity at 2 m, low and middle cloud cover, water vapor mixing ratios, total water mixing ratios (cloud, rain, ice, snow, and graupel) are recommended to for correction of global radiation. (2) Seasonal differences of the best sample number for different correction schemes should be considered. (3) The corrected effects using the hourly rolling scheme are better than those by using other models. By means of the hourly rolling scheme, the average absolute error, mean relative error, and relative root mean are obviously reduced, and 79% of total data are improved after correction. Furthermore, absolute errors of the corrected global radiation present the typical normal distribution pattern. The scatter distribution of corrected and observed values is more concentrated, and larger positive errors are improved after correction. (4) The correction effects in spring and winter are better than those in autumn and summer. It may be caused by seasonal differences of forecasting errors of macroscopic and microscopic cloud physical parameters.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.